from the BFD

I have seen a number of articles recently that have suggested that we are expecting huge numbers of positive cases of Omicron in the next few weeks.

Here is the headline from the first article from Newshub, published on January 27th:

There’s that ‘modelling’ again. As an accountant, I was frequently asked to do forecasts for clients to support loan applications. They were pie in the sky. The last few years have proved that nobody knows what will actually happen and frankly I could have put any numbers in the forecasts that I felt like as nobody would have ever been any the wiser.

I didn’t do that, of course. I made them as favourable to the client and as acceptable to the bank as I could. The banks always went with them. So long as they had a piece of paper on file, admittedly with completely fabricated numbers, they were quite happy.

The Newshub article came originally from RNZ, and was published by them on the same day, January 27th (just over a week ago). Here is the most interesting bit.

New Zealand could be facing 50,000 daily Omicron infections by Waitangi weekend, according to modelling by a highly-respected, overseas health research organisation, peaking at about 80,000 each day just a few weeks later.

Well, guess what? It is now Waitangi weekend. There was no way on earth that the case numbers were going to get to 50,000 in just over a week. Friday (4 February) showed 209 cases, on Thursday 3 February 147 cases were reported and on Wednesday 2 February 126 cases were reported. The numbers will have to multiply 250 times in the next few days to reach the levels predicted by the modellers.

And we are constantly told to ‘trust the science’.

Modelling. Photoshopped image credit: Rick H. The BFD

This is nothing more than blatant scaremongering. It works, by the way. I have previously told you about friends who really believe that they are going to die in the next few weeks. I haven’t seen them recently, because they are hunkering down, waiting for the end… all in a town that has still not had a single case of covid in 2 years.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections, updated last Thursday, predict an outbreak in New Zealand lasting about three months, with death rates projected to total more than 400 by 1 May. Daily fatalities are predicted to spike at about 10 through mid March.

Even though Omicron is nothing more than a 2-day cold? 10 deaths per day? What absolute rubbish.

There are also warnings this country’s ICU capacity will come under “extreme stress” through February and March.

As we have been warned for the last 2 years and yet it has never happened. Instead, we now have people dying, or likely to die, because of postponed treatments or undiagnosed conditions. Isn’t the health service supposed to be about curing sick people, not stopping itself from getting overwhelmed, and putting lives at risk in the process?

This is just scaremongering, pure and simple. It is disgraceful.

Read the rest