Today we begin a series on the truth of what is happening to the Earth’s climate. Historically there have always been periods of warming and cooling, but towards the end of the 20th century growing hysteria developed over the dangers of global warming which have proved to be unfounded. Ian Bradford looks at the scientific realities.
Predicting climatic disaster
By Ian Bradford
In 1989 The UN predicted disaster if global warming was not checked. Nations would be wiped off the face of the earth, coastal regions flooded, about 23 million people displaced, a fifth of Egypt’s arable land flooded and many ecological refugees. Here we are 32 years on and has any of this happened? NO!
The UN then formed its climate mouthpiece the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change). The IPCC said ocean levels will rise by up to nearly a metre. The IPCC predicted 50 million would be displaced by rising sea levels by 2015. Did that happen? NO! They then quite surprisingly predicted the same thing for 2020. Did that happen? Again NO.
At one stage they said all Pacific Islanders would have to move to New Zealand. They said that 1/6 of Bangladesh would be flooded displacing a quarter of its 90 million people. So it went on. They then stated that nations had a ten year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control. The world had to solve this “problem” by the year 2000. S
The value of CO2
The sun’s rays are reflected from the surface of the earth and the greenhouse gases trap many of these reflections so that the earth is kept warm.
So what was the issue here? The UN through the IPCC claimed that humans were increasingly putting carbon dioxide (CO2), into the atmosphere from various sources and that was causing serious global warming and large sea level rises.
I have read reports that stated that CO2 is a poisonous gas and a pollutant. Neither is true. It is a very important gas essential for the survival of humans. It is essentially plant food. If CO2 falls below a certain level all plants die and so do we. Of course plants give us oxygen as a result of taking in CO2 and through the process of photosynthesis.
Some serious research showed that human induced (anthropogenic) global warming was the biggest fraud the earth has ever seen. Here are some facts:
- While the IPCC would have people believe that CO2 is the main greenhouse gas it is not. Water vapour is and makes up about 90% of the greenhouse gases. CO2 only makes up about 6% of the greenhouse gases. The problem is you cannot tax water so that is why CO2 was selected. The present concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is a bit over 400 parts per million (ppm).
- Since the Industrial Revolution some 170 years ago the temperature of the earth has risen about 1 degree Celsius (C). Humans have been responsible for .01 degree C of that.
- The current rate of sea level rise is 1.8mm per year. By the year 2100 at this rate the sea will have risen about 5 inches (13-14cm). However, the rate of sea level rise is decreasing, so the rise by 2100 could be much less than 5 inches perhaps only 3 inches. Interestingly that the rate of sea level rise is decreasing but more CO2 is being put into the air.
- If we double the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere the temperature of the earth will only rise about 1 degree C. This has a huge advantage in that the yield from planted crops would increase markedly. This would help feed the growing world population.
An historical CO2 – temperature link?
Back in geological time, the concentration of CO2 reached as high as 7000 ppm. When the average temperature of the earth was 12 degrees C as it is now, the concentration of CO2 was 4500 ppm. This occurred in the Ordovician period some 450 million years ago. Long before humans had any influence.
Looking at the geological past it is clear there is no correlation between CO2 levels and the temperature of the earth.
The temperature in the medieval warm period between about 1200AD and 1400AD was 1 degree warmer than it is now. This was long before humans began putting CO2 into the air. Our current warming trend started some 200 years before humans had any significant effect on contribution to the greenhouse gases.
For 33 years from 1944 to 1976 the temperature of the earth was actually falling.
Many thought perhaps this may be the beginning of an ice age, but then there was a slight warming. From 1995 to 2014 there was no change in the temperature of the earth. There was a hiatus. Both of these events happened while CO2 levels in the atmosphere were rising.
This latter event caused the IPCC and other global warming advocates to change the name from global warming to climate change!
(In my second article I will look at how weather patterns have always been variable and how human activity has minimal effect on climate.)