Less than half the Strait is in Iranian territorial waters, the rest is in Oman waters. It’s thus pretty much a guarantee than the ceasefire won’t last; there’s no way the UAE or Saudi Arabia are going to tolerate this.

Would such a person be deported from Starmerland? Of course not; as we’ve seen there in many cases, pedophilia is fine as long you have the right skin colour and religion.

A Pakistani-born imam based in Brescia, Italy—Imam Ali Kashif—appeared on Italian television, where he defended what he described as a Muslim’s right to marry a nine-year-old girl.

Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, responded decisively. Rather than issuing a lengthy statement, she took swift action through authorities on the ground.

Kashif was subsequently arrested, deported, and reportedly woke up back in Pakistan the next morning.

As expected, opinions are divided on whether liberating 95% of Iranians from their despotic Islamist rulers — even if it could be successful — is a sufficient reason for plunging the world into an economic depression; and on whether Trump reciprocating the Islamists’ long time rhetoric about America, including Kim Jong Un style statements, is acceptable.

Please note, events are moving very fast in the Middle East and changing almost as fast as I can write a paragraph. The ceasefire, for example, has already been breached as Iran continues to fire ordinance at Gulf States and the Strait of Hormuz is once again blocked. To that end, be aware some aspects of this Substack may soon be out of date.

There’s a ceasefire in the Middle East, somewhat. The details are sketchy and only time will tell if it holds for two weeks or longer.

Before we discuss the wider issues around this ceasefire, it is important to address Donald Trump’s social media posts including how a “whole civilization will die tonight” and his threats to destroy infrastructure such as bridges and power stations. These comments are totally unbecoming of the President, unhinged even. Instead of holding the moral high ground, President Trump effectively vented his frustration that things have not gone as effortlessly as he hoped. Even if his supporters argue the ‘civilisation’ he was referring to was that of the Islamic regime, the choice of words was very clumsy and risks isolating the many proud Persians who support the destruction of the regime. An earlier message mocking Allah was also unnecessary but again point to a man becoming increasingly frustrated by circumstances.

We also need to appreciate how Trump operates. He is very good at deflecting and distracting; saying one thing while doing something else. As the outrage class are getting outraged again, he’s doing something else. The ceasefire being a perfect example, coming hours after his outrageous social media posts. This doesn’t condone his words, but we also need to factor in how he consistently operates.

Trump and others do appear to have underestimated the Islamic regime. These are not individuals influenced by Western values or reason. They are adherents of a death cult. They are people not only prepared to kill any who they disagree with but also embrace death for themselves as well. The Islamic regime is responsible for innumerable deaths around the Middle East and beyond since they took power in 1979, including the horrific events in Israel on October 7^th. They are responsible for murdering almost 40,000 civilians in Iran a few weeks back, when those protesting the economic situation were massacred – to the predictable yet complicit silence of the usual Western activists. Let’s also not forget, this is also the regime that was more than happy to beat a woman to death – Mahsa Amini – for not wearing her oppressive hijab correctly.

It is all too easy to think every religion is the same, but this is a deeply flawed notion. It is perhaps a notion that Trump and others have fallen into. The leaders and adherents of the Islamic regime in Iran are obsessed with death. Their eschatology (which means ‘end times’ and how the world will end) involves facilitating and embracing death. They believe they need to actively attack their enemies to prepare the way for new utopia. We don’t need to go into depth here, for all we need to understand is that the Islamic regime loves death as much as we love life (to borrow an expression from Douglas Murray). If people cannot appreciate this, then there is no way to appropriately appreciate how to engage the regime controlling Iran.

The details of the proposed ceasefire are unclear. Worryingly, some in media are playing fast and loose around Iran’s proposed ten point plan, suggesting erroneously these are the conditions accepted. Some commentators also seem determined to suggest Iran is the victim of some grave injustice. For example, one reporter on TV One news talked of this “as a war of America’s own making”, implying that America and Israel just arose one morning and decided to attack Iran for the fun of it. No mention of the nuclear programme or brutal repression of civilians; no mention of Iran firing missiles, cluster munitions, and drones at civilian targets across the various Gulf States; no mention of the treatment of women and other minority groups; no suggestion there might be some wider context to be considered. All of these are an inconvenience to the progressive narrative that requires there be an agreed and unchanging ‘victim’ and ‘oppressor’ dialectic, and to which all the usual activists in New Zealand and elsewhere have been shamefully beholden too, leading to their silence about the horrors happening within in Iran.

The path ahead though is unclear. What is clear is that the United States underestimated the religious resolve of the Islamic regime, believing that military might would be sufficient to bring about regime change. There may still be an uprising by the Iranian people, but it is also beyond doubt that the killing of around 40,000 civilians by the regime has had a profound impact.

The ceasefire will allow oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, but it will also allow the Islamic regime to re-consolidate, re-arm, and oppress internal opponents. For those who might celebrate a potentially lower petrol price here in New Zealand, understand that thousands of Iranians will die at the hands of regime over these next two weeks alone.

The ceasefire will also be intensely fragile. Both sides will seek any excuse to show the other side has not kept the deal. We also have the uncomfortable reality of what the situation looks like post the ceasefire.

A few final reflections. Take a moment to ponder how Iranians both here in New Zealand and abroad feel about the possible survival of the Islamic regime that has brutalised, humiliated, and terrorised them for nearly 50 years. We can also rightly reject Trump’s calls to target infrastructure such as bridges and power stations yet also note how the Islamic regime was more than happy to put civilians around them as a shield.

Perhaps this is the last observation around such a complex situation. It is more than possible to hold multiple and sometimes competing views around what is happening in the Middle East. We can say that war is bad yet also see why an Islamic regime such as that in Iran needs to go. We can say a ceasefire is welcome but also appreciate that many will suffer regardless. We can want peace yet also understand that a regime obsessed with death will never stop until itself is stopped.

In Media

Following on from the discussion above, a few days back I interviewed Gilda Kirkpatrick – a New Zealand Iranian – to get her perspective on events happening in Iran. She urges kiwis to understand the situation more deeply and how many Iranians want to see an end to the Islamic republic that has oppressed Iran for decades. You can check out the interview here.

I’ve also recently sat down with Sarah McLaughlin from FIRE.org – the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, one of the United States’ foremost advocacy groups for freedom of speech and free thought. Check out their Substack, Expression.

Sarah is FIRE’s Senior Scholar, focusing on the dynamics of free speech around the globe. We discuss the growing challenges to free speech happening globally, with Sarah noting that if free speech was a hospital patient, it’s in pretty poor condition.

Sarah is touring New Zealand courtesy of the Free Speech Union later in April, so head over to www.fsu.nz/events to find all the details.

from The Australian

Pauline Hanson’s Senate Explosion: “The Aboriginal industry is a racket!”

Senator Pauline Hanson delivered a fiery speech in the Senate, accusing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of supporting what she called a “corrupt industry” that wastes billions while Indigenous communities continue to face hardship.

She called for a full audit, questioning why some leaders appear to live comfortably while poverty persists. Referring to the failed “Voice” referendum, Hanson argued that Australians rejected policies she sees as divisive, yet little has changed.

Her remarks have sparked debate over government accountability, Indigenous policy, and whether her stance highlights real concerns or risks deepening national divisions.

The specific luxury payouts Hanson exposed? More details

We’ve supported Tim in both the 2020 and 2023 elections.

If you’re keen to be part of my team this year, then please join us at our volunteers’ celebration on Wednesday night, 15 April at 7pm at Connect Church Auditorium, Realm Drive, Paraparaumu.

If you’ve never thought about being part of our team before, that’s ok. Come along and learn a little more and decide after that. It will be fun!

It will be a busy year, but it’s really important to me that we get some time together as a team away from campaigning, and so I can say thank you in advance of a big year. I would love the chance to see you all, to say thank you in person, and to talk briefly about our local plan for the year in Kapiti so you know what’s coming up and how you can be connected where you want to. Others are welcome to come and sign up on the night so please bring a friend or four! The more the merrier.

If you can RSVP to Lorraine it will help with catering numbers.

If you want to help but you can’t make it on the night, just take one minute to fill in this simple form here.

from the Babylon Bee

The dark side of the moon has long been the subject of myth and speculation. What mysteries lie beyond the known lunar surface in that dark realm beyond our telescopes?

Now, The Babylon Bee can reveal what the crew of the Artemis II mission discovered on the other side of the moon:

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1. Rocks: Lots and lots of rocks.
2. A Starbucks: Man, they really are everywhere.
3. 1,000,000,000 Mylar birthday balloons: So that’s where they all end up.
4. A Somali daycare: The owner says it has a huge client base and is totally legit.
5. A Shohei Ohtani home run ball: Not even Earth’s atmosphere can contain his power.
6. Several boxes labeled “Epstein Files”: Someone must have been trying really hard to keep these from being found.
7. Amelia Earhart: Always the last place you’d think to look.
8. The Chinese moon base that’s been there for years: Ope! Sorry, didn’t know anyone was already here.

What an incredible treasure trove of amazing artifacts. What else did you expect them to find?

The difference is that in America they will get things done a lot faster, and they don’t employ people to stand around or sit in truck cabs to watch Tik-Tok videos all day.

by Karl du Fresne from his blog

“I’m not going to play that game,” Christopher Luxon said – rather lamely – when Tova O’Brien asked him how many Maori National MPs were in his cabinet.

“It’s not a game,” countered O’Brien, doubtless trying hard to conceal her glee at having so easily caught the prime minister out.

Oh, but it is a game. The game is called scalp-hunting and it’s commonly practised by journalists and broadcasters who mistakenly think their role is to make politicians squirm.

The funny thing is, no-one can recall the game being played when Jacinda Ardern was PM. Ardern appeared to be surrounded by an invisible but impenetrable shield that protected her against awkward questions.

It wasn’t so much that such questions harmlessly bounced off her. They just weren’t asked. And if they were, as happened sometimes on Mike Hosking’s breakfast programme, her response was to stop going on his show.

O’Brien would have been thrilled at causing Luxon to stumble yesterday when he couldn’t answer her question. It was the equivalent of a bowler stumping the opposing team’s opening batsman with the first ball. You could almost see the thought bubble above her head: “Howzat!”

Luxon should have seen it coming. O’Brien has built her reputation on hatchet jobs and would have been eager to make an impact in her new role as presenter of TVNZ’s breakfast show. The hapless PM obliged by walking straight into her trap.

Then he compounded his mistake by saying that the newly promoted James Meager, who is of Ngai Tahu descent, is a cabinet member when he’s actually a minister outside cabinet. O’Brien pounced again and left Luxon looking like a possum in the headlights.

It was depressing evidence that even after four and a half years as leader of the National Party and two and a half as prime minister, Luxon still hasn’t got the hang of politics.

His rise to the top of the corporate ladder was no preparation for the shark tank he now swims in. He still exhibits two fatal frailties: he lacks a killer instinct and he’s far too keen to be liked. Those are dangerous political weaknesses that leave him vulnerable and make him an easy target for aggressive broadcasters and journalists, to say nothing of his political opponents.

Far from developing the agile – and sometimes necessarily forceful – verbal and mental responses essential in his position, he appears to rely on stilted, formulaic talking points supplied to him by his communications advisers. Not only do these not resonate with the public, but rigid adherence to them leaves him exposed and floundering when an unexpected question lands.

A more street-smart politician would have known how to deal with O’Brien’s mischievous query (and it was mischievous, since its clear purpose was not to enlighten viewers so much as to catch Luxon out).

Yes, it might be argued that Luxon should know how many Maori National MPs are in his cabinet. But his response should have been that the ethnicity of cabinet ministers is irrelevant. It’s competence that matters.

He said he wasn’t going to play O’Brien’s game, but he did. Rather than feebly protesting at her question, he should have gone on the front foot and challenged her attempt to reduce cabinet appointments to a matter of identity politics. Luxon and his ministers need to constantly remind themselves that one of the reasons New Zealanders so emphatically rejected Labour at the last election was that they were desperate to be extricated from that ideological morass.

For all his faults (and God knows, there are plenty), Winston Peters wouldn’t have given O’Brien the satisfaction of claiming his scalp. That’s the difference between the two coalition party leaders, right there: Peters is a born politician whereas Luxon is still on trainer wheels.