Ukraine has now attacked more NATO countries than the USSR, Russia, North Korea, China and Iran combined.
Slowly, the reality of what Brussels has created is dawning. An uncontrollable Mafia state flushed with money and weapons. The perfect storm is approaching the EU. pic.twitter.com/Ae2TFrKiHg
Potassium Permanganate (Condy’s Crystals) has numerous uses in gardening as well as in other applications.
The origin of the chemical and its common name is as follows:
In 1659 a German chemist, J.R. Glauber, fused a mixture of the mineral pyrolusite and potassium carbonate to obtain a material that, when dissolved in water, gave a green solution (potassium manganate) which slowly shifted to violet potassium permanganate and then finally red.
This report represents the first description of the production of potassium permanganate.
Just under two hundred years later London chemist Henry Bollmann Condy had an interest in disinfectants, and marketed several products including ozonised water.
He found that fusing pyrolusite with NaOH and dissolving it in water produced a solution with disinfectant properties. He patented this solution, and marketed it as Condy’s Fluid. Although effective, the solution was not very stable. This was overcome by using KOH rather than NaOH.
This was more stable, and had the advantage of easy conversion to the equally effective potassium permanganate crystals.
This crystalline material was known as Condy’s crystals or Condy’s powder.
Potassium permanganate was comparatively easy to manufacture so Condy was subsequently forced to spend considerable time in litigation in order to stop competitors from marketing products similar to Condy’s Fluid or Condy’s Crystals.
I remember as a boy that if one had a sore throat a mild tincture of Condy’s Crystals would be made up to use as a gargle. This would kill the bacteria which was causing the sore throat.
“The use of a weak solution of Condys crystals as an antiseptic wash or bath for eczema, vulvovaginitis, vaginal thrush and recurrent urine infection in adults and children is neglected. This safe, simple and effective treatment was used in pre-antibiotic days as a vaginal douche in obstetrics following the birth of the baby.” (That was from a Doctors web site)
Condys Crystals is good for:
* club root in brassicas & other susceptible plants.
* control for moss in lawns
* carrot fly deterrent.
* control powdery mildew in gardens.
* Black spot & mildew on roses. 5 grams to 5 litres.
* Tomatoes:Occasional watering with Condys Crystals will act as a tonic improving flavour and colour
* Sterilize soil.
Disinfectant.
Staining Timber and deer anthers.
Fungus control on fish in tanks and ponds. (very mild solution)
Fungus toe nail and athletic foot (about a teaspoon into a basin of water to soak foot)
sterilising drinking water
starting a fire: potassium permanganate mixed with sugar can ignite and produce a fire under the right conditions, because permanganate is a strong oxidizer and sugar is a fuel.
The mixture is dangerous and can generate enough heat to burn or start surrounding material.
I originally came across the gardening use of Condy’s Crystals from a South Island gardener who told me how to apply the chemical for club root control in brassicas.
Dissolve a quarter teaspoon of Condy’s Crystals in one litre of water along with 3 desert spoons of common salt.
Once dissolved the coloured mix is added to a further 9 litres of water and stirred to mix.
One litre of the above is then poured into each planting hole where a cabbage or other brassica is to grow. The preparation sterilizes the surrounding soil and reduces damage to the roots from the club root disease.
A number of gardeners like to sterilize the soil in glasshouses or in areas where the same crop is grown year after year such as tomatoes.
My suggestion is to make up the above preparation as for club root, but to use only half the amount of water thus doubling the strength of the solution.
This then is watered over 3 to 5 square metres of soil that you wish to treat. The soil should be moist, but not wet prior to application. Leave for a week or so then water the area lightly to force the solution deeper into the soil.
About a week or two prior to planting in the area, flood the soil to wash away any residue that maybe left.
For moss control in lawns place one full teaspoon into 9 litres of water and spray over the moss.
Am alternative to this for moss, use Wallys Moss and Liverwort Control.
To deter carrot fly add a few grains of Condy’s Crystals to water to make a light pinky colour and spray this over the young carrot tops.
Some years ago another South Island gardener told me how he controlled rust on celery.
At the first sign of rust a quarter teaspoon of Condy’s Crystals to/ a litre of water would be made up and sprayed over the celery for complete coverage. This would be repeated as needed.
The gardener told me that it worked a treat and as long as he used it, his celery would be rust free.
I have found that since then the same can be used on any plants to help control rust disease.
This then can be extended to control of other fungus diseases such as black spot and powdery mildew.
These later two can also be prevented or controlled with the use of Baking Soda (a heaped tablespoon to a litre of water with one mil of Raingard added.)
At this time of the year make up the solution (dissolve a quarter teaspoon of Condy’s Crystals in one litre of water along with 3 desert spoons of common salt.) Then spray this over your roses and the surrounding soil to kill any disease spores that maybe waiting for spring to attack.
Other deciduous plants such as fruit trees could be treated in a like manner for various diseases such as curly leaf, black spot, brown rot and bladder plum.
Repeat in the spring when the plants are starting to move or /and again at first sign of disease such as black spot etc.
Condy’s Crystals are cheap when compared to many other sprays.
A number of garden centres stock 200 gram jars of Condys Crystals sold under the correct name KmnO4 Potassium Permanganate..
On Sunday 19 July the Waikanae Music Society will present the Elouan Quartet with Bridget Douglas (flute) in a concert featuring a wide variety of music for flute and strings.
Waikanae Music Society presents Elouan Quartet and Bridget Douglas (Flute)
All of the ensemble are prominent New Zealand Symphony Orchestra members and their concert is part of a nation-wide Chamber Music New Zealand tour. The performance opens with a quintet by popular Australian composer Elena Kats Chernin, followed by one of the best-loved works for flute and string – Mozart’s Flute Quartet.
A novel item follows with New Zealand composer’s Ken Wilson’s Introduction, Theme and Variations, which will showcase Bridget Douglas playing on an extremely rare piccolo. Ken Wilson was a foundation clarinettist of the National Orchestra of New Zealand (now NZSO) and the piccolo belonged to the orchestra’s flautist Richard Giese, who had a vast collection of unusual instruments. The Elouan strings will then present one of Beethoven’s legendary last works – the String Quartet No 16 in F major. On a lighter note the concert will close with Nightclub from Astor Piazzolla’s Histoire du Tango.
The concert will be at 2.30pm in the Waikanae Memorial Hall on 19 July. Ticket enquiries: www.waikanaemusic.org.nz
Environmental activists, mainstream media outlets, and many scientists routinely claim governments must take drastic action to transform the world’s economic system, including ending the use of fossil fuels, or island nations will disappear beneath the seas and low-lying coastal cities will be swamped, forcing a great migration of populations inland..
To back up their claims, they cite statements from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserting it is “very likely” sea level rise has accelerated since the middle of the twentieth century in response to warming caused by rising greenhouse gas emissions.
The IPCC, however, bases its claim on computer model projections instead of measured, real-life data.
Data lend little support to the claim seas are rising at a historically unusual or increasingly rapid rate. Global sea levels have risen by approximately 400 feet since the beginning of the end of the most recent ice age (approximately 20,000 years ago), with the sea level rise slowing and increasing over periods of tens, hundreds, and thousands of years over the past 20,000 years, having nothing whatsoever to do with human activities.
Research shows most of the islands making up nations such as Tuvalu and the Maldives are gaining land and mass, not losing it.
A peer-reviewed study that examined 600 coral reef islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans reported approximately 40 percent of those islands remained stable and 40 percent grew.
More evidence they and coastal areas in Florida and Hawaii, for instance, aren’t sinking beneath the waves can be inferred from the fact that the populations on these island nations and the coastal United States are increasing instead of fleeing, and they are putting up new, expensive buildings and associated infrastructure daily.
A 2019 report by Drs. Craig Idso, David Legates, and the late S. Fred Singer confirms sea levels have not been rising at an unusual rate in recent years.
After examining long-term data from tidal gauges and other sources, Idso, Legates, and Singer write;:
“The highest quality coastal tide gauges from around the world show no evidence of acceleration since the 1920s.”
The difference between data recorded by the global tidal gauge system and projections made by various purported climate authorities is because “[l]ike ice melting, sea-level rise is a research area that has recently come to be dominated by computer models,” the authors write.
“Whereas researchers working with datasets built from long-term coastal tide gauges typically report a slow linear rate of sea-level rise, computer modelers assume a significant anthropogenic forcing and tune their models to find or predict an acceleration of the rate of rise.”
Human actions, such as the construction of barriers, channeling of rivers, conversion of coastal wetlands into densely populated metropolitan areas, and draining of coastal aquifers for human consumption (which causes land subsidence) have undoubtedly made some coastal regions and populations more vulnerable to rising seas.
Nonetheless, there is little evidence increased greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to ocean rise.
In a 2017 Heartland Institute study, geophysicist Dennis Hedke analyzed data from 10 coastal cities with relatively long and reliable sea-level records and found there was no correlation between changes in sea levels at these locations and rising carbon dioxide levels.
For some cities, the rate of sea level rise has remained virtually constant, neither increasing nor declining appreciably from the rates experienced before humans began adding substantial amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Other cities, such as Ceuta, Spain, have experienced very little sea level rise over the past century, exhibiting almost a flat trend line well below the historic rate of global sea level rise of approximately seven inches per century.
Other cities, such as Sitka, Alaska, have experienced falling sea levels. Still others, such as Atlantic City, New Jersey, have experienced a large, rapid increase in sea levels.
The point is different areas around the world are having different experiences with sea levels, with differences in the rate of sea level rise being a result of localized conditions, not global climate change.
Some alarmists have recently tried to respond to observation that claims of accelerating rates of sea level rise are based on computer models alone, not hard data, by citing satellite-reported sea-level data collected by University of Colorado researchers.
Their dataset indicates seas are rising by approximately 3.3 mm per year, much higher than the annual rise of approximately one to two mm recorded at tidal stations, a rate that has changed little over the century or so for which we have adequate records.
The rate of rise claimed by the University of Colorado researchers is a result of statistical sleight of hand, produced by mixing data from four different satellites: combining data from two earlier satellites and two later satellites that record significantly higher rates of sea-level rise than the earlier two satellites.
As meteorologist Anthony Watts points out, the earlier dataset shows a much smaller trend of sea level rise than the latter two satellites:
Neither set of the satellite record shows any accelerating trend. The UC scientists simply combined the two dissimilar data sets, plotted a new trend showing acceleration, and didn’t mention the difference.
That one little burp by Mt Etna already put more than 10,000 times the carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than mankind has in our ENTIRE time on earth – but don’t worry – a scam is in the works to tax you and your miniscule ‘footprint’…
This is either incompetent or dishonest, and certainly not up to even the simplest of basic science principles. Virtually any high school or college student who presented such work for a class would get called out on it by their instructor for showing a false trend.
Our knowledge of previous interglacial cycles indicates seas will continue rising unless and until the next ice age comes, notwithstanding any efforts humanity may make to stem the tides.
It makes sense to prepare for rising seas by hardening coastal areas, discouraging ill-advised coastal development, and making people living along coasts aware investments made there could be swallowed by rising water.
Ending the use of fossil fuels and giving ever-larger governments increasing power over peoples’ lives will not stop the seas from rising and will only make people poorer and less free.
Barry Young is a hero for exposing the NZ data showing so-called ‘vaccine’ harm. Heath New Zealand wants to put him in jail for 7 years. They don’t want to look at the data. They have NEVER had their epidemiologists look at their own data. The NZ data time series shows mortality always rising AFTER each shot, regardless of season.
New Zealand whistleblower Barry Young, who faces trial for leaking COVID-19 vaccine data, told The Defender that public trust can be restored only through transparency and accountability. He said the country’s COVID-19 inquiry “danced around the issues,” failing to seriously examine ‘vaccine’ safety concerns or mandates. “The worst possible lesson from COVID-19 would be that institutions can avoid scrutiny by labeling critics as dangerous or misinformed,” he said.
Barry Young, a former New Zealand Ministry of Health programmer and whistleblower, faces trial and up to seven years in prison after allegedly leaking COVID-19 ‘vaccine’ data he said revealed significant safety concerns. Young was arrested in December 2023 on charges of “dishonestly accessing a computer,” according to The New Zealand Herald. In September 2024, Young told The Defender he was representing himself in the case.
The following is a Q&A with Michael Nevradakis, senior reporter for The Defender.
COVID-19 Inquiry 1 was a total farce. COVID-19 Inquiry 2 was another example of how to avoid the elephant in the room. They danced around the issues.
Key people — [New Zealand’s former interim Minister of Health and COVID-19 Response Minister Chris] Hipkins and [New Zealand’s prime minister from 2017-2023 Jacinda] Ardern — were given a free pass not to attend, as advised by their lawyers.
If anyone should have been forced to front up to questioning it should have been Hipkins, the actual COVID-19 minister. … Hipkins, who, as it turns out, was given important information on the risk of myocarditis in young people, yet did nothing and actually promoted young people to get vaccinated.
These are the actions of a sociopath, pathological liar or someone who has no brain.
These people on the list did not have to testify to the COVID-19 inquiry at all to answer why this advice was ignored.
The biggest shortcoming, from my perspective, is that it did not truly test the official vaccine-safety narrative against the raw data. The data from New Zealand represents a gold-standard clinical trial.
We have approximately 2.2 million people followed after their “last vaccination” until either death or censor date, October 2023.
This gives an almost perfect age-standardised time series cohort analysis.
The average time each person was on the “study” was approximately a year, so it avoids a bunch of issues like immortal time bias. Each age group was well represented, and Stats NZ kept accurate age-standardised mortality statistics.
So from these ages, we can compute within a high degree of probability what the expected mortality would be based on each of those age groups by adding up their person-years and comparing to the baseline.
Even compared to the Crown’s expert epidemiology witness, using his elevated mortality figures (from 2022), the average mortality rate (standardized mortality ratio or SMR) came out at 1.6.
This means the vaccinated cohort on the Health New Zealand database had an approximate 60% higher mortality rate compared to the New Zealand baseline. That’s taking into account all ages.
The forest plot looks like this for each age band.
In a cohort of 2.2 million people followed after their last vaccination, there were 37,315 observed deaths compared with 22,560 expected based on age-standardised background rates, giving an excess of 14,755 deaths (SMR 1.65; 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.67)
This corresponds to an absolute excess risk of ~0.67%, with ~40% of all observed deaths being above expectation.
If the effect were random, SMR should fluctuate around 1. Instead, it rises monotonically with age.
That’s a dose-response relationship, which strengthens causal interpretation.
This demonstrates that most of the absolute excess burden sits in the elderly, even though the SMR rises across all ages. Among people ages 65 and older, there were 31,922 observed deaths compared to 18,442 expected, yielding an SMR of 1.73 and ~13,480 excess deaths.
This accounts for ~91% of all excess mortality in the cohort.
Yet the COVID-19 inquiry chose to ignore all of that.
Even when addressing the “clusters of deaths” and doing Monte Carlo simulations, the maths becomes hard to ignore, which is exactly why they have ignored it.
All we need to do is some basic analysis: At a site on one day (maybe a nursing home or retirement village), 54 people were vaccinated sequentially. Of that elderly group, 25 died within a year, and 19 of these were in vaccination sequence, meaning they were vaccinated one after another.
Even assuming the vastly elevated mortality rate (which is high even for nursing homes), the chance of seeing 19 in a row dying like this is astronomically low.
The only alternative argument to this pure mathematics (permutations and combinations) is that the order of vaccination was somehow “non-random” and they separated out the ones who they “knew” were going to die (i.e., a group of super sick and frail people within a larger group of super sick and frail people) and somehow vaccinated them together for some reason.
That is such a bizarre scenario, yet that is the level that sane, rational people are going to avoid this mathematical reality.
I chose this site because, by analogy, it’s fairly close to a deck of playing cards, and you can try doing this at home (52 cards — 26 black and 26 red). If you have 52 (randomly shuffled) playing cards, there are 52! possible combinations of drawing them one after another (i.e., 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 … etc.) — a huge number.
So out of this number of combinations, how likely is it to draw out 19 black cards in a row, for example? It’s almost impossible.
This is high school maths, nothing to do with comorbidities, ages or Pfizer, just pure maths.
You can run the simulation in RStudio using this code:
Monte Carlo P value is zero, meaning that in a million shuffles and draws, it never once got a sequence of 19.
What I have managed to do with this maths and stats evidence is get the Crown (or the prosecution — the Crown represents the state, equivalent to the district attorney in the U.S.) to admit in a memo that EVEN IF there have been excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 vaccine, that is irrelevant to my court case.
You have to read that a couple of times to make it sink in. The Crown are admitting that even if the COVID-19 vaccine can be proven to be killing people, they don’t really care.
An astonishing admission.
My next feat is to get them to either deny or ignore the existence of mathematics. These are the corners I am backing them into.
Science, truth and logic are good like that.
Nevradakis: How did the COVID-19 inquiry deal with vaccine injury and vaccine safety more broadly?
Young: It didn’t. Next …
Nevradakis: Would you say that the outcome of this inquiry was, in a sense, preordained?
Young: I do think the outcome was heavily shaped by the terms of reference, the institutional assumptions, and the sources of evidence relied upon (absent the huge amount of evidence showing this is a potentially deadly product).
If an inquiry begins from the premise that the central public-health architecture was broadly legitimate, and then mostly asks how it can be improved next time, it is much less likely to ask whether some of the underlying decisions were fundamentally wrong.
The outcome was structurally constrained. They never invited me to speak, even though I asked. The ones that did speak avoided talking about the Health New Zealand data showing serious concerns.
Therefore, it was unlikely to produce a finding that the vaccine programme, mandates or safety monitoring failed in any major way, because the inquiry seemed to rely heavily on the same institutions whose actions were under examination.
Nevradakis: Is this similar to or different from other countries’ COVID-19 inquiries, in your view? Are there any countries you can identify as having performed a “model” inquiry?
Young: I would not say any country has yet produced a truly model inquiry.
A model inquiry would be independent, adversarial where necessary, data-driven and willing to test uncomfortable evidence.
It would hear from vaccine-injured people, clinicians, statisticians, data analysts, mandate-affected workers, public-health officials and dissenting experts.
It would require production of raw data and internal communications.
It would not treat criticism of the response as misinformation by default or prosecute those who are trying to show there are serious red flag concerns with this “vaccine.”
Nevradakis: Is there anything else you would like to add?
Young: Yes. I think the real lesson is that public trust can only be rebuilt by honesty and transparency.
If there were errors, they should be admitted. If people were injured or died, they should be recognised and families supported. If mandates caused harm, that should be acknowledged. If data showed safety signals, those signals should be investigated transparently, not dismissed because they are inconvenient.
The worst possible lesson from COVID-19 would be that institutions can avoid scrutiny by labeling critics as dangerous or misinformed (or conspiracy theorists). That is not how science, democracy or public health should work.
Brief update on my legal case:
My criminal case is ongoing and approaching 900 days since my brutal SWAT team arrest, with eight armed police smashing into my house and putting me in handcuffs.
To put that into perspective, the U.K. July 7 London terrorist bombers received similar treatment. Even in the U.S., only high-profile drug raids are similarly resourced.
Not a usual process for nerdy computer guys who have never been in trouble with the police before and are accused of copying data from a work laptop.
To put it another way, Fred West, Britain’s worst serial killer who gruesomely murdered dozens, was politely “asked” to attend the police station, which he volunteered to do.
That context tells you everything about how they view this.
The current focus is on my claim for protection under the Protected Disclosures (Protection of Whistleblowers) Act 2022. My position is that I was a public-health data worker who saw serious safety signals in official health data and attempted to raise those concerns because I believed there was a serious public-health issue requiring investigation.
The Crown opposes that and strongly retaliated. It says the case is not about a protected disclosure but about alleged dishonest access to computer systems, which is crazy circular logic.
I strongly dispute that framing. They are saying the protected disclosure does not apply to the “crime” of looking at data and seeing serious concerns.
If this is upheld, it will destroy the purpose of the Protected Disclosures Act.
A major issue now is whether the data I saw and relied upon was genuine and whether it was “manipulated,” and whether a reasonable person in my position could have believed it shows serious wrongdoing or serious public-health risk.
The judge has specifically asked the parties to address the relevance and genuineness of the lists of vaccinated persons who died soon after vaccination, and whether comparison with the original data shows wrongdoing or manipulation.
The Crown are claiming the data has been manipulated yet will never — NEVER — provide any actual evidence of this. They are saying that the act of running select queries on a databases is “manipulation.”
They think that by revealing a bunch of dead people in a cluster, you’re somehow creating them out of thin air, and that if the query wasn’t run, they wouldn’t exist.
Classic denial and cognitive dissonance.
For me, the key point remains simple: I did not set out to harm anyone. I raised the alarm because I believed the data showed something profoundly serious that needed proper investigation.
Instead of investigating the concern, Health New Zealand and the Crown have focused on prosecuting the person who raised it.
Two things spring to mind: Don’t shoot the messenger, and no good deed goes unpunished.
I’m not worried. I am shielded and protected by the truth. So even if they lie and ignore the truth, I will have won.
John 8:32: Believe, and the truth shall set you free.
Your [bank]notes are more authentic than the originals. –Inspector Andre Mattei
The Cezanne of counterfeit money
This is another brilliant film from the New Zealand French Film Festival. Based on the life of Polish immigrant Jan Bojarski, it follows the counterfeiter’s life from his creation of highly convincing fake passports in World War Two through his long ‘career’ forging French banknotes.
Bojarski graduated from university in Poland as an engineer and architect, and over 20 years used his many skills to produce tens of thousands of bank notes of different denominations. Five stars.
Combatting discrimination
The Pole marries French woman Suzanne and they have two children. He has trouble getting official papers as a French citizen, so sub-consciously works to get his own back on the authorities. After many unsuccessful attempts to sell his inventions legitimately he becomes a forger for a gangster, but when things get too hot he decides to strike out on his own.
He sets up a workshop at the back of a shed in his garden. Here Bojarski constructs his equipment and meticulously forges various French notes for many years. He quickly realizes that a certain type of cigarette paper is the best for his fake notes.
He works alone is his secret hideout, but his wife eventually finds out what he is doing. He is incredibly carefully and has three rules in his distributing of the notes. One is to only use just one note at a particular shop and just buy just once in a street. So he moves all over France to tobacconists where he can get the crucial cigarette paper. He travels discreetly by train posing as a well-dressed businessman and never tells anyone where he is going.
Unfortunately he helps out an old acquaintance and consequently his life unravels.
Top performances
In the starring role Reda Kateb is superb and as his wife Suzanne, Sara Giraudeau is also very impressive. Kateb occasionally displays passion, violence and quick thinking, but most of the time he is focused on forgery and concentrating on upsetting the Bank of France, as the role demands. It is a masterly display of his talent. In the role of chief forger-hunter Inspector Mattei, Bastien Bouillon gives a polished performance trying to bring Bojarski to justice.
Director Jean-Paul Salome brings the tale of perhaps the greatest counterfeiter of all time to life with tight editing and appropriate changes of scene.
This is yet another classy film from the French Festival which is travelling to many centres and is bound to be put on general release like The Richest Woman in the World starring the legendary Isabelle Huppert.
For Waikanae filmgoers Shoreline is bound to feature the general release movies.
Poland tells illegal migrants to Stuff off, unlike the 4th Reich, Le Pays de Macron and Starmerland. Also it doesn’t have Leftist judges like NZ does and in Poland the Muslim population only makes up approximately 0.1% to 0.2% of the country’s total population; in NZ it’s 1.5%.
The primary motive is to produce dramatic visuals for helping Ukraine’s overall cause as war fatigue in the West becomes more palpable and Trump’s political one ahead of November’s midterms after his loss to Iran.
Zelensky recently boasted about his country’s long-range strikes against Russia in the Urals and Western Siberia, which followed an earlier large-scale strike against Moscow after several months of sporadic strikes against St. Petersburg. He also announced a 40-day influence operation aimed at coercing Russia into freezing the Ukrainian Conflict, which will likely include many more such attacks. These latest moves coincide with the EU disbursing the first €3.2 billion installment of its €90 billion loan to Ukraine.
Palpable war fatigue in the West as reaffirmed by Czechia, Slovakia, and even Hungary under its new EU-friendly government refusing to finance the aforesaid loan, which preceded Bulgaria’s new government banning arms supplies to Ukraine, arguably pushed Zelensky to authorize attacks with dramatic visuals. Trump once described him as “the greatest salesman on Earth”, and true to form, he knows how to put on a show to keep his audience interested and the cash flowing. That’s the first purpose of these strikes.
The second is to reinforce the false narrative that “Ukraine is winning”, which has been gradually reintroduced by the Mainstream Media throughout the past half-year after earlier being completely discredited by summer 2023’s failedcounteroffensive. A State Department representative parroted this claim word-for-word just last week, but as RT’s Sergey Poletaev argued, “The drone war is a distraction. Watch the front” as Russia continues gaining ground in Liman, Rai-Aleksandrovka, and Konstantinovka.
Lastly, Zelensky’s final purpose in carrying out his highly publicized spree of strikes is to boost morale at home, which remains very low amidst the continued inconveniences of the conflict and especially the “busification” policy of snatching draft-age men off the streets to send them to the front. There’s close to zero chance of a popular revolt, let alone of one succeeding, but he still wants his people to think that they’re at least “getting revenge” on Russia. In a nutshell, this spree of strikes is all smoke and mirrors.
To be sure, Ukraine has indeed inflicted some damage on Russia’s energy industry, but it’s nothing game-changing and nowhere near what would be required to shift the military-strategic dynamics of the conflict in its favor. Nevertheless, Trump is still smarting from the US’ defeat in the ThirdGulfWar and hopes in part to distract the electorate with the dramatic visuals that Zelensky is responsible for in Russia ahead of November’s midterms, being just as much of a “salesman” as he is and understanding its value.
This partially explains his decision to “escalate to de-escalate” against Russia through a three-phase “war of attrition”, the first part of which includes strengthening Ukraine’s strike capabilities. His grand strategic goal of coercing Putin into selling him controlling stakes in Russia’s state natural resource companies will likely remain beyond his grasp, but Trump will probably still continue pursuing it regardless. In furtherance of this goal, more US-backed Ukrainian strikes on Russia are expected over the summer.
All in all, Ukraine’s spree of strikes against Russia is more showmanship than strategy, with the primary motive being to produce dramatic visuals for helping Ukraine’s overall cause as war fatigue in the West becomes more palpable and Trump’s political one ahead of November’s midterms after his loss to Iran. He and Zelensky are preparing to dial up the pain against Russia, but their plot isn’t expected to change Putin’s calculations about the conflict’s endgame, nor result in Ukraine actually “winning” for once.