There was nothing north of the Waimeha Stream or south of the Waimea Road Motor Camp at that time. See earlier similar posts.
by Geoffrey Churchman
There are four main lessons which aren’t new ones:
- Being both photogenic and articulate helps win elections
- Practicing the politics of envy can help
- A ‘fear factor’ can also help, in this case a quite overrated coronavirus
- Having biased Mainstream News Media on your side definitely helps
We can surmise fairly accurately why the movements in popular support between 2017 and 2020 happened:
- Labour picked up a lot of centrist support from National and NZ First voters in 2017 for various reasons, lifting it from 37% to 49%
- The Greens picked up support from the Hard Left who felt Labour wasn’t left wing enough, lifting them slightly from 6.3% to 7.6%
- ACT picked up libertarian-right minded people over National’s failure to oppose the police attacks on law-abiding gun owners last year and and their raids on opponents of the government’s ideology — up from 0.5% to 8%.
- National didn’t appear, rightly or wrongly, as a party that had a consistent vision and had performed well as the Opposition — its support dropped massively from 45% to 27%.
- Winston with his NZ First as part of the government just appeared as another Guru of Kapiti — say things to get elected, do nothing about them when in office, in fact do the opposite. Goodbye.
National has been lower than 27% of the vote — in 2002 it only managed 21%. Also, in 2014, Labour got less than National did this time — 25%. So things can change. Jacinda is intelligent enough to know that the large block of centrists who switched from National to Labour could just as easily switch back again next time; that probably means no more overtly Hard Left measures in the next 3 years, although further hits to civil liberties are quite likely.
The economic outlook
In a nutshell it’s much reduced GDP, but big increases in property prices, growth in Public Servant numbers, substantial handouts to the government’s favoured people, big increases in public and private debt, and there will be no tax cuts.
It’s not a happy prospect for first home buyers and the many who are worried have been snapping up houses as soon as they become available; but speculators and developers have been doing that, too.
Jacinda & Co. have found out that a government bureaucracy can’t build affordable houses like the private sector can, so maybe they’ll opt instead for giving first time home buyers grants for deposits — perhaps $100,000 each?
The Reserve Bank will keep interest rates at close to zero for the next three years, but much more debt will be notched up in real estate than in productive enterprises.
Things Jacinda could do to show solidarity with countries ruled by her Comrades
I’m not talking about China — its leaders are autocratic like her, but it’s a Communist country in name only and capitalists get very wealthy there. No, there are some others that qualify:
Venezuela — why not a barter deal: food for oil. Venezuela is short of the former and has plenty of the latter. We shouldn’t continue to trade with the Saudi’s: they may be Muslims, but they are also wealthy gangsters who have no interest in workers’ and women’s rights, except what the international community can shame them into granting.
Cuba — it’s a poor country so take the tax off Cuban cigars, rum and tequila!
North Korea — it is also ruled by a Dear Leader and wages for its workers are very low; there must be some mutual economic benefit by doing barter deals surreptitiously via China?
by Roger Childs
The Covid 19 contest
It was always going to be the Coronavirus election and, as expected, Labour rode the Covid wave to a landslide victory on Saturday. Did tens of thousands shift their allegiance because of the government’s success in limiting the virus damage in New Zealand while it continued to rage overseas? That is only part of the answer.
Much has been made of the daily publicity Labour received as Jacinda Ardern spoke to the nation on cases, progress and policies. The prime minister’s critics have indulged in plenty of “hindsight history” and pointed out flaws in the response to Covid-19, but the fact remains we have done very well compared with most countries and states overseas. Ardern had to get it right in her daily television appearances and, using her excellent communication skills, she did. People were impressed by her compassion, and the messages of showing unity and demonstrating kindness, appealed to most. She was ably assisted by super-star Director General of Health, Ashley Bloomfield, whose unruffled approach to delivering the Covid-19 updates won widespread praise. (Is there a knighthood coming in the New Year honours?)
Another positive for Labour was Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s astute handling of the economic fallout of Covid 19. Some critics spoke of Jacinda “smashing the economy” and, out on the right, Bob Jones predicted a depression. It didn’t happen and so far there has been a relatively “soft landing”. The sensible government messages of “shop local” and “see the country” have been taken to heart and have undoubtedly helped the recovery.
These unquestionably helped the cause of the left. Simon Bridges did not succeed in having a consistent message on the virus crisis and once he was rolled by Todd Muller, National’s problems compounded. Within a few weeks he and Nikki Kaye were gone and Judith Collins, who had long coveted the leadership, took over. It was a big ask, but she put her heart and soul into the campaign. She performed well in the first leaders’ debate, received favoured treatment from the interviewer in the second but lost the final one.
However, she seemed uncertain about what persona to adopt – “Crusher Collins” or “Joyful Judith” – and there were some embarrassing missteps.
- In the second debate she called Jacinda “dear”.
- Her husband unwisely used social media to demean the prime minister such as referring to her as “Cindy the Sulk”.
- Then she made some insensitive remarks about obese people which were ironic as she is herself over-weight and her deputy Gerry Brownlee has a serious problem.
- She also came out with some policies on the campaign which many of her candidates, such as Simon Bridges, were seemingly not aware of.
Was she harassed by the media such as Newshub ferret Tova O’Brien? Possibly, however, all the parties and candidates were in the firing line. Collins herself is an old hand at handling the media. A number of columnists in the papers gave her credit and were not slow to highlight mistakes made in the government’s Covid-19 response.
The rise and rise of ACT
David Seymour had an armchair ride into parliament in 2014 as John Key did a deal to virtually hand him the safe National seat of Epsom. However, this election’s ACT party vote has given him 9 colleagues. Seymour has been able to garner plenty of publicity in the last couple of years and he comes across as being youthful, confident and practical. Being sponsor of the End of Life Choice bill was a godsend. It is debatable whether ACT would have done so well on Saturday if there hadn’t been a referendum on this crucial piece of legislation.
Obviously with the leadership problems being faced by National, many voters on the right gave their party vote to Seymour’s team. These folk may well return to the Tory fold in 2023.
What to do about the Greens?
The Greens recovered from co-leader James Shaw’s brinkmanship in allocating millions to a Green private school in Taranaki. On Saturday they won Auckland Central and gathered 8% of the party vote. Will they have a role in the new government? In the 2017–2020 coalition they had some ministers outside cabinet.
Labour has enough MPs to govern alone and most of those who supported them on Saturday would like to see that happen. The Coalition was hamstrung by New Zealand First, in particular, and the Greens, holding up some policies which Labour wanted to pursue. Winston gave the thumbs down to much needed tax reform and the development of light rail in Auckland.
My feeling is that the new government will want to avoid possible clashes on policy e.g. infrastructure and agriculture, which could happen if the Greens get some cabinet posts. There will be a great sigh of relief (by all your editors and many conservationists) if Eugenie Sage, who likes poisoning the environment and killing wild animals, is not re-appointed as Minister of Conservation.
To hold on to their unusual 2020 mix of supporters, Labour should, and hopefully will, rule alone, with perhaps some sort of loose consultative arrangement with the Greens.
By Marcus King (1891-1983)
Around the time Twitter purged New York Post‘s bombshell stories about Hunter Biden from its platform, late last week, Amazon was busy censoring any criticism against the “official” COVID-19 narrative, with the banning of at least one book from its Amazon Books store.
“BAD NEWS. After selling over 3,500 copies for Amazon since publication on August 20, Amazon has banned my book “COVID-19 and the Agendas to Come, Red-Pilled.” Individual orders can still be placed at…” Perloff tweeted.
According to RT, and perhaps why Amazon removed the book, is that it “traces how the Covid-19 pandemic has been used by governments around the world to force draconian social control measures upon a terrified populace, evaluates several theories regarding the virus’ origin, and offers some projections about what might lie ahead for humanity – including how populations might work together to avoid some of the most totalitarian outcomes.”
by Christopher Ruthe
The Kaj –
- “It will bring as many to Kapiti as the island” –Councillor Elliot
- “a facility that will attract greater tourism” —Gurunathan
- It “enhance[s] the mana of Kāpiti Island and our district.” –Councillor Buswell
It looks like the Council is about to recommend that ratepayers pay all or most of further the fees for visitors using the Kaj [Gateway] biosecurity facility. Council has taken on board the fact that raising ticket prices by 20% might put visitors off. In 2013 visitor numbers fell almost 50% when DOC increased it fees by 25%.
KCDC is committed to the project proceeding. It now has to-give out of town visitors a free or almost entry pass. If visitor numbers double in the next year and quadruple in 10 years, what will it cost ratepayers? 30,000 visitors times $15.00 is $450,000 per year growing to $876,000. This is on top of the costs set out in the KCDC business forecast. That forecast shows expenses of $393,000 a year. So the total cost to ratepayers will be between $843,000 and $1,269,000.
It is interesting that what is effectively a Labour council is wanting to fund a visitor centre of no benefit for residents. It is designed to draw “out of towners” preferably Aucklanders here. Waikanae Library is likely to be closed forever. Another paradox: this council says it is Green yet it is encouraging transport pollution — most will come in cars.
All this at the expense of residents so many of whom rely on the superannuation for their income. Rates are likely to soar 11% next year as ratepayers keep on picking up the tab.
One also needs to examine the enormous construction costs for this glory edifice. The floor area is only to be 135 m² — Lockwood, for example, say their high-spec prices are around $3,000 per m² which is $405,000. Adding the $500,000 that the KCDC has already spent on this proposal plus a similar amount for engineering and site preparation, it still falls well short of the claimed $4.6 million. What else does the council have in mind? –-Eds
Promo photo for Stetson Estate
Originally posted on olddogthoughts: Saying they were concerned about the high number of Kiwis entering Sydney but then immediately departing for Melbourne, Tourism NSW announced today that it will build a Melbourne-style lockdown amusement park, in an attempt to keep valuable tourism dollars in the state. Sydney To Open Lockdown-Themed Amusement Park For New Zealanders…Sydney To Open Lockdown-Themed Amusement Park For New Zealanders Who Want The Full Melbourne Experience | The Shovel — Rangitikei Environmental Health Watch
by Louisa Carroll
KCDC is known in parenting circles as the Kaprice brat, behaving like most children who are both spoiled and obnoxious. Kaprice throws her toys out of the play pen when they are tired and old. Kaprice hates them. Kaprice didn’t look after them.
Kaprice is demanding a new toy. It is something she must have right now. The new toy is the Kaj – Kapiti’s Taj Mahal. It is a magic building. Uncle Guru and Uncle Wayne have been telling everyone this new doll’s house will stop all storms so Kaprice’s friends can go to their favourite secret island every day of the year! There will be no storms to stop them.
Uncle Guru and Uncle Wayne have told Kaprice how to con her parents (they are Ratepayers!) Like all Mummies and Daddies they tell Kaprice ‘you should look after your toys.’ But Kaprice hates that. She pretends she has looked after them.
She has a library in her own toy town. It no longer works. It will cost millions [$13 million to be exact]¹ to fix. Kanprice also has a Community Hall where dolls once played.
It is now full of black mould. It will cost heaps to fix [$1.4 million]². Uncle Guru and Uncle Wayne have helped Kandice make it look as if she did try and look after her toy town. She has done a pretty mural on the library and scrubbed up the community centre house with a bit of glue and bleach.
Kaprice is sure Mummy and Daddy ratepayer will be happy and reward her for being such a good child. She knows Mummy and Daddy are kind inclusive liberal parents and will not be like parents of old and tell her ‘Fix what you broke before you get your new Kaj.’
Next month Mummy and Daddy are going to give Kaprice a special pre-Christmas present — a brand spanking new Kaj. And Mummy and Daddy will be glad Kaprice is so happy they will forget about those old toys which look destined for the recycling bin.
1. “Waikanae’s toxic library has a new mural, a new lick of paint and an estimated $13 million replacement bill.” –Stuff
2. “In 2019, Stuff revealed the Te Newhanga Community Centre, valued at $1.2m, needed an estimated $1.2m worth of repairs after tests discovered black mould and water-damaged infrastructure.” –Stuff. The estimate is now $1.4 million
“History is an unending dialogue between the present and the past and the chief function of historian is to master and understand the past as a key to the understanding of present.” –E.H. Carr
In this issue
- Feedback on Anthony Dreaver’s talk in September
- The upcoming October session – Hari Jackson “A Kapiti Life” –Tuesday 27 October
- Jock Phillips on statues
- Are we hiding our early history?
- The last two sessions for 2020
Thanks to our September speaker: Anthony Dreaver
|Anthony provided a very interesting account of the history of the health camp movement with an emphasis on the Otaki facility. He outlined the important part the camps played in improving the health, confidence and well-being of children who were often in need of “building up”. One gentleman in the audience came along with the framed original of the “The Sound of Music” photograph. (See below)Everyone thoroughly enjoyed the session.|
On the night Anthony mentioned the “Save the Rotunda” project and seven of us took up his offer of a guided tour of the Otaki Health Camp in early October. Di Buchan, who has written the history, spoke about the development of the camp and then Anthony led us on a tour of the buildings and facilities. Well worthwhile. If you would like to do a tour, contact Anthony: firstname.lastname@example.org
|An historic photo of Otaki Health Camp is above, the Rotunda is in the right background.|
The October speaker – Hari Jackson
Hari has lived most of his 80+ years on the Coast. He attended primary school here and later went on an old bus to Horowhenua College in the days before Raumati District High School was established. Rugby was a major sporting interest and he played for over 60 years ending up in the Golden Oldies competition.
“I shall be talking about my Great-great grand-father Te Wharemaru Ihakara who came to Paraparaumu about 1840 to claim his land from the beach front up Beach Road (later Kapiti Road) beyond the site of the airport, up to (present day) Coastlands, Epiha St and over the hill to Kaitawa Cres. He and his wife had three sons. I come from my Great grand-father Epiha Ihakara.”
Hari will also cover his experiences and involvement in the district in the post-war decades through to the present.
- Tuesday 27 October at 7.30 pm
- Kapiti Uniting Church, 10 Weka Road, Raumati Beach.
- Gold coin koha. Thanks.
- A light supper will be served following the talk.
Jock Phillips on statues
|The well-known historian spoke recently to the Friends of the Library and addressed two key issues about statues and memorialsAre our memorial representative of gender and ethnicity?What do we do about “offensive” memorials?|
Do women get a fair go?
Statues of women are usually symbolic rather than being of particular women. Often they are angels on war memorials or represented as symbols of motherhood. There are four angelic women featured on the memorial beside Christchurch Cathedral and motherhood is a feature of the sculpture in the National War Memorial in Wellington.
Queen Victoria statues feature in Wellington, Christchurch and Christchurch. As for actual New Zealand women, there are few memorials. Waimate has one of the best – a statue honouring the hard working and highly respected doctor Margaret Cruickshank, who died in the 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic. In Auckland the legendary flyer Jean Batten features in bronze appropriately at the airport.
In Christchurch beside the Avon there is memorial to the New Zealand suffragists – Kate Sheppard and five other women.
Jock feels that there should be more statues of women. Opunake has one of Peter Snell, so why doesn’t Dunedin have one of Yvette Williams?
(For more on what he covered, see https://waikanaewatch.org/2020/10/18/jock-phillips-on-statues-and-memorials/)
Are we hiding our early history?
|Some of you will know the name Martin Doutre. He has done plenty of work on researching the likelihood that human settlement notably of moa hunters, in New Zealand goes back 2000 -3000 years. He firmly believes that there were humans in New Zealand before the 186 AD Taupo ash shower and probably before the Wamihia ash shower in c 1340 BC.|
What’s the evidence? Extensive archaeological digs, notably in the Waipoua Forest in Northland and in the Poukawa Valley south of Hastings. These very careful excavations with meticulous records, were backed up by scientists at the DSIR and university geologists at the time. However, when carbon dating revealed ages of up to 3000+ years the trail went cold and authorities will not release the records.
Ian Bradford from North Canterbury has noted: Archaeologist Noel Hilliam worked on the sites in the Waipoua forest along with 37 others in 1981 and 1983. Datings came back showing that in 2500 BC there were people living there. Shortly after, the local kaumatua closed the site down and the records held in Wellington had a hold on them for 75 years.
One of our members attended a talk by Martin Doutre in Auckland and suggested that the KHS might like him as a speaker. Another member is prepared to put him up if he comes here. If you feel this would be of interest, let John or Roger know.
Speakers and topics in November and December
- November 17 – Bruce Taylor will speak on “A History of the Wellington to Manawatu Railway with particular reference to the impact on Kapiti, 1870s to present.”
- December 15 – David Hadfield on the involvement of his family on the Kapiti Coast in the last 50+ years.
Suggestions for topics and speakers are always very welcome. Next year we will definitely have sessions on Gallipoli and Parihaka.
Roger Childs and John Robinson
Extracts from a Newsletter received today. On Saturday night the Party’s strength in Parliament went from 1 to 10 MPs.
The Missing Election
Covid-19 denied New Zealand an election on the issues, but they remain. Productivity growth remains in the tank. 1 in 10 kids is born on to a benefit. The country is 99 per cent uninhabited but building stuff is much harder than it needs to be. ACT now has a big team to campaign on the issues, and we can’t wait to get stuck in when Parliament resumes in a few weeks.
Opposing and Proposing
ACT will be both holding the Government accountable (why, today, does it want to give small business $300 million when Labour’s policies cost small business so much?) and proposing better ways forward (how can we make it easier to build a home and beat the gangs?). ACT’s balanced role as an opposition party will make a big impact.
Launch Maverick on Alert 5
Lovers of Top Gun will know there is always a spare aircraft below deck in case the carrier is attacked, Alert 5. Here come the Special Votes. The Sainte-Lague formula is tedious but every seat has a rank. Damien Smith is ranked 110, safely in Parliament. Miles McConway is on Alert 5, ranked 122. There are half a million special votes to be counted. If ACT does slightly better than other parties on the specials, Miles may make it.
The New Caucus:–
ACT supporters can be confident they have elected a high quality team. Commentators say they haven’t been in Parliament like it’s a bad thing. The experiences our caucus bring are worth more than a term in the House when it comes to serving in Parliament.
Brooke van Velden
Smart, liberal, likeable. Brooke carries the social mores of the millennial generation who don’t want to be socialist. A trained economist from a family of small business, Brooke is set to be the voice of a generation that could otherwise repeat the mistakes of the 70s. A name worth remembering.
In Nicole’s case, MP stands for magnetic personality. We have been in awe of Nicole’s connection and work rate, she was on the bus tour for 26 days straight. She is also Communicator of the Year 2020 who stood up for licensed firearm owners on principle in a calm and rational way that is a credit to New Zealand’s democracy. We are thrilled to have her in Parliament.
Chris had fifteen years as a cop, and fifteen as a teacher for students with special learning needs at Nayland College in Nelson. He owns a small business and employs 30 people, plus he plays jazz. How cool is that. Chris will being a wealth of much needed experience to the House of Representatives.
Everyone says there should be a blue-green party. Trouble is, the Greens are an anti-capitalist party and the blues pay lip service to the environment. Simon Court is a former Green voter. What changed? He’s an environmental engineer. He knows we are not short of regulations. We need innovation to be better environmental custodians, and often regulation stops environmentally friendly innovation.
32 year old James McDowall has a PhD, a young family, and speaks Chinese. Brimming with ability, James will make a big impact on the standard of debate in Parliament. He is a committed classical liberal, the second ‘native’ ACT MP. He was in ACT on Campus with David Seymour supporting Rodney Hide in 2005.
Karen wowed ACT’s Dare to be Different campaign launch with the bravest political speech we have seen. Nearly every MP says they want to reform CYFPs/CYFs/Oranga Tamariki. Karen Chhour lived it and is coming to Parliament to make a better world for children left down and out. Her own story of overcoming adversity to have a loved family of her own and a successful business is the embodiment of ACT values. She changed her future.
Mark is the authentic voice of rural New Zealand. He has farmed for 32 years. He gave a speech on the Auckland waterfront in a suit and red bands. He’s seen the calamity of rural mental health and understands what MPI inspectors coming on to your land means in practical terms. No party in recent times has had a professional farmer who actually milks cows every morning enter Parliament. While his family manages the farm, Mark will speak for all those who do.
Toni is a long time ACT supporter, many time candidate and member of the Party’s Board of Trustees. She and her husband employ over 25 people in their business that operates across three cities. Toni is from the deep south and will bring the southern burr with ACT’s principles and a real understanding of what it means to make payroll every fortnight.
Damien has serious corporate, investment, and finance experience. He is going to be the most knowledgeable member of Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee. When monetary policy is at the crossroads and debt is out of control, he is one of the best possible voices any party could be bringing to Parliament.
How good is David Seymour. Many are calling him one of the top two MPs, second only to the PM. Nobody in 100 years has entered Parliament alone, become a leader on day one, gone into government, then turned down being a Minister. Thousands will benefit at their most vulnerable stage from the compassion and choice of the End of Life Choice Act. He has grown ACT into the third largest party after the commentariat wrote him off. Now they are saying he won’t turn ACT into Parliament’s second party.