I know what a genuine fiscal reckoning looks like. I lived it, and it’s not pretty.

My 1991 ‘Mother of All Budgets’ was not ideological zeal. It was an unavoidable response to years of fiscal drift, mounting debt, and a refusal by successive governments to act early enough. The decisions were painful precisely because they were delayed – the very essence of what we’re seeing today with the Robertson/Willis approach.

And while Nicola Willis is trying to create a straw man argument that her approach is in the ‘reasonable middle’, in practice it represents a continuation of Grant Robertson’s model: borrowing today, deferring discipline, and pushing surplus projections further into the future.

That is not a middle ground. It is the same approach, rebranded.

A middle ground would be what Sir Bill English delivered with zero-budgets, but so far Nicola Willis has totally rejected it.

In a few hours, the real test will come. Under my Fiscal Responsibility Act the Government is required to fully open the books.

If the surplus has been delayed, yet again, it will demonstrate exactly the problem.

The Robertson–Willis approach of fudging and kicking the can down the road increases the likelihood New Zealand will require shock therapy within the next five to ten years.

Let me be clear: that outcome would be disastrous – and entirely avoidable.

No one wants another crisis-driven adjustment. But those become inevitable when politicians refuse to confront fiscal reality while choices are still manageable.

Continued deficits and rising debt are not abstract accounting issues, but warning signs for our kids and grandkids’ living standards and prosperity. Ignore them at your peril.

Discipline by design is always preferable to austerity by crisis. If we fail to act, another reckoning will not just be possible – it will be inevitable.

Yesterday, The Post published my opinion piece about why the Taxpayers’ Union is so concerned, and why we launched our Nicola’s Fudge campaign. The full piece is here.

It is with a heavy heart the Taxpayers’ Union has to be so vocal to sound the alarm. But our messages are no different to what the Government’s own advisers have been saying: despite all the talk, no fiscal consolidation has yet occurred.

The Government constantly talks about being “on a path to surplus” – yet today is poised to push back the surplus by another year, the third time in just two years in office.

If that’s a ‘pathway to surplus’ they’re walking the wrong way down it.

So rather than play into the Minister’s strategy to distract and deflect by orchestrating a squabble about a debate, this afternoon we’ll let the numbers do the talking.

Thank you for your support.

Hon. Ruth Richardson Board Chair New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union