by Geoffrey Churchman

June 2026

October 2023 (election result)

Unlike in Australia, Britain, France, Germany, where once minor centre-right parties have become the most popular (respectively, One Nation, Reform, Rassemblement National and AfD) and have replaced a lot of support for the establishment parties, NZ has a centre-right government so there is no movement for a newcomer to oust it.

Both the Taxpayers Union poll and the TV1 News poll this month show that the difference between the coalition government’s combined support and the left bloc’s combined support is miniscule — respectively 48.6% to 46.8% and 46% to 47% — and less than the margins of error.

As has been said before, polls are tools of analysis, not tools of prediction as they don’t take account of undecided voters, newly eligible or possible changes of mind between the poll period and the election day.

All that the NZ polls say is that it will be tight, and that always is the case in the MMP environment.

TV1 News presenters were once again just about orgasmic that in their poll the Leftist parties hold a lead, but it’s so meagre that there is no reason for them to be happy. During the 2017–2020 period of the Jacinda regime NZ First acted as a brake on the extremism that saw Labour trounced after the 2020–2023 period when NZ First wasn’t there. Many people shudder to imagine what a combination of Labour & Green & TPM would be like.