These are taken from the detailed iteration reports.  “First preference” means the person received a 1 next to their name on the ballot paper, and these are counts of the ‘1’s.

When there are several candidates a complicated mathematical formula is used with second and subsequent preferences to calculate a quota for a candidate to be successful based on the number of available seats.

There has been a lot of discussion in Kapiti about whether STV is better than First Past the Post, used by most councils in the country.  Your editors’ view is that despite the difficulty, on balance it is.

Your editors made a trip to the Otaki main town yesterday and could only marvel at how much infrastructure work has been done there in the 3 years since the hardworking Cr James Cootes has been Ward councilor.  (It probably also reflects the fact that Guru, Jackie Elliott and Angela Buswell also live in the area.)

We checked out the library and it was the cause of huge envy in comparison with what Waikanae now has to make do with.  The floor area must be about 5 times bigger and it has meeting and discussion areas that make it the community hub it should be.

We were told by the staff that Waikanae people are now going there — and no doubt spending money in the local shops.  The task for the new Waikanae Community Board is to get a proper library building — which Waikanae deserves considering how high Rates are here and how neglected Waikanae has been by the council!

The number of votes cast as a percentage of those on the roll in the last 3 elections were:

2013  — 59;   2016 — 55;   2019 — 49

This must reflect the town’s changing demographics with a steady influx of two-working-income households replacing retirees on fixed pensions, who have either downsized or moved to cheaper areas like Levin.  One of your editors’ friends is among those who have done that.  Most of those moving into the new subdivisions will also be younger working two-income households.

Younger people overall tend not to take as much interest as older people in local politics. Thus while Waikanae people’s participation in council elections is still higher than the Kapiti average, it is steadily getting close to it.

Youngsters coming through

By Roger Childs

The Shanghai Masters concluded over weekend when Daniil Medvedev (23) beat Alexander Zverev (23) 6-4. 6-1. But where were the legends — Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer?  Nadal wasn’t playing and the top seeds Djokovic and Federer went out in the quarter finals. 

The other two semi finalists were Marco Berrettini (22) and Stephanos Tsitsipas (21)

The pundits have often been speculating over the last few years when the young bloods would displace the 30+ trio of masters.  However, Rafa, the Joker and Fed have won 52 out of the last 59 grand slam titles and all 12 in the last three years. They are not looking to pass the torch just yet. Djokovic did win the recent Japan Open Masters tournament.

Won’t give up without a fight

Age shall not weary them.

There have been a number of younger players picking up the occasional win against the top three over the years, but consistency has eluded them. The legends have the big match temperament and are often able to recover from the loss of an early set or being down 0-40 on serve. It is not uncommon for Nadal, Djokovic and Federer to fire down a series of aces when they are in trouble.

Despite being 33, 32 and 38 respectively, the big three are superbly fit and have no weaknesses. They will be around for a while yet. The acid test for the end of 2019 is the London Barclays Indoor tournament in November. In this contest the top eight men’s players compete in a round robin in two groups of four to find the semi-finalists.

It will interesting to see how the chasing pack shapes up in this climax to the ATP year.

At least 35 killed and 17 missing after Typhoon Hagibis tears through country, flooding rivers and submerging cities. —Satoshi Sugiyama, Japan Times 13 October 2019

by Roger Childs

The season in Japan

It is that time of the year – late summer in the Northern Hemisphere – when these weather bombs are spawned. They always cause considerable damage, but Hagibis is one of the worst since records have been kept in Japan. 

• Many people have died and been injured.
• Property and settlements have been destroyed. 
• Rivers have broken their banks flooding wide areas. 
• Some places have received their highest rainfall ever. 

Obviously we are more interested in the tragedy this time because of the World Cup taking place in the country, but it important to get things in perspective. Rugby in the end is only a game and a few match cancellations are nothing compared with the loss of life, houses destroyed and transport disrupted. The apoplectic comments from the Scottish rugby administrators about possibly missing out on playing Japan were very selfish and highly insensitive.

What creates a typhoon?

Typhoon is the Japanese term for what we call a (tropical) cyclone and the Americans call a hurricane. Tropical is the key word as these massive low pressure systems originate within a few degrees of latitude near the Equator. High sea temperatures are the source of typhoons, and in the late summer the oceans in the tropics reach a heat ideal for spawning the storms. The paths of typhoons are difficult to predict, however the formation process follows a set pattern.

Here is the recipe.

TAKE 1 A large warm ocean area

ADD 2 Storms developing on the edge of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone where trade winds from the two hemispheres interact

ADD 3 Air sucked up into the upper atmosphere, sometimes aided by the jet stream

THEN 4 Stir with the Earth’s rotation – the Coriolis Force (this give the typhoon its characteristic swirl shape)

THEN 5 Add heat given off by condensation of water in the air.

Typhoons / hurricanes / tropical cyclones need an on-going supply of energy from warm seas to keep them going. In Japan’s case the warm Kuroshio Current provides this fuel. It flows north-east from the South China Sea and passes south of the Japanese islands. Off the coast of the United States the Gulf Stream serves the same function.

Typhoons only travel at about 25-35 km/h, but the winds that swirl around the calm eye of the storm may reach over 300 km/hr. These intense low pressure systems rotates anti-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern.

A typhoon will lose its strength when it passes over land or across colder waters, however it will continue to pack a punch for some time after hitting the coast.

Devastating outcomes

Typhoons are massive hazards as they bring a cocktail of appalling weather and impacts on the land.

• Very strong winds which cease for a short time as the eyes passes over.
• High seas and large waves driven by the winds.
• Torrential rain which invariably causes flooding and landslides.
• Storm surges which result from a temporary rise in sea level where the ocean waters are literally pulled up by the rapidly rising air in the low pressure system.

The results of these factors, as exhibited by Hagibis are loss of life; widespread damage to  property; flooding of settlements, transport systems and farmland; damage to crops, trees and stock. Not surprisingly, areas close to the coast are most vulnerable to the devastating impact of typhoons.

For the areas affected there is then the huge job of cleaning up and rebuilding. 

These were posted on the KCDC website (as well as all the others) at 1:35 pm.  There are only 107 special votes left to count District-wide and they won’t affect these outcomes.

Valid votes counted in Waikanae were 5,332 which is slightly up on the 5,200 in 2016.

Ward councilor, first preference votes:

Jocelyn Prvanov  2165

Michael Scott  1661

Iride McCloy  1506

After distribution of 2nd preferences from those who gave 1st preference to Iride:

Jocelyn Prvanov  2698

Michael Scott   2055

Both Iride and Michael Scott ran in 2016 and in both cases the first preferences shown above are slightly up.  Jocelyn Prvanov, who has been on the Community Board a long time, and in the last 3 years as Chair, did not run 3 years ago.  It’s clear that despite Geoffrey’s endorsement, few of those who voted for him in 2016 switched to Iride and most went to Jocelyn Prvanov.  Many of those who voted for Tim Parry in 2016 must have voted for her, too.

Waikanae Community Board, first preference votes:

James Westbury  2453

Geoffrey Churchman   1020

Margaret Stevenson-Wright  757

Eric Gregory  416

Jill Griggs  397

Michael Moore  349

After the reallocation of preferences via the (complex) STV system:

Elected

James Westbury   2453

Geoffrey Churchman  1399

Margaret Stevenson Wright  986

Jill Griggs  927

Defeated

Eric Gregory  771

Michael Moore  562

Although Jocelyn Prvanov also stood for the Community Board again, because she had become Ward councilor, the votes just get shown as 0.

Naturally, it’s a big disappointment for our team that Iride wasn’t elected, but that’s democracy and we push on with Jocelyn instead.

The important thing now is strong voices for Waikanae at the council table, which would have been immeasurably helped if Murray Forsdyke, Tim Parry, Chris Turver and Nigel Wilson had all been elected as District-wide councilors, but none were.  Again, that’s democracy.

Although at the time of writing the KCDC has still not advised voting numbers with each contest (a totally unacceptable delay), the GWRC yesterday provided the result of the Kapiti seat on the council:

GAYLOR Penny 10,194
MACKAY Neil 6,593

Having endorsed Neil MacKay, this result is a disappointment for us, but Neil agrees he left his campaign far too late.  Nevetheless, his tally is more than respectable for someone hitherto largely unknown.

We’ve encouraged Neil to express views with media releases about what happens with GWRC matters as they affect Kapiti over the next three years.

Rob McCann held this at his place in Otaihanga yesterday afternoon and was attended by about 10 candidates and family members including Geoffrey and Eva, Jocelyn Prvanov, Nigel Wilson, Sophie Handford and Guru.

During the campaign we endorsed candidates with ties to both Labour and National Parties, and although some thought Rob McCann stood under the Labour Party banner to boost his chances in next year’s parliamentary elections, he had already announced he will not be seeking a parliamentary seat. Nathan Guy has announced his retirement as Otaki MP also, so that contest will be one with new frontrunners.

As previously observed, in NZ local politics, ideology matters little — the most important principle is that money taken from the people should be spent as much as possible for the people’s benefit and not high priced inhabitants of glass towers, whether in Rimu Road, Paraparaumu, or in Auckland and Wellington.

With the Captain Cook celebrations in full swing, inevitably the “what if’s” of history get debated. The diverse native peoples of New Zealand were fortunate that Britain’s Captain Cook did the first systematic charting of New Zealand’s coastlines and returned on two subsequent voyages. There were plenty of French explorers in the south Pacific in the late 18th century and Akaroa might have become the first capital of Nouvelle Zélande.

Unlucky French explorers

By Bruce Moon

The French made several expeditions to the Pacific and all were in some degree unlucky. Their problems were often severely compounded by their failure to apply the British discovery of the ways to avoid scurvy. Basically the key factor was to provide sailors with vitamin C from oranges and lemons, or sauerkraut in Cook’s case.

• Marc-Joseph Marion du Fresne was eaten in the Bay of Islands in 1772. 
• Jean-François-Marie de Surville was drowned when trying to get ashore in Peru in 1770.  Coincidently he had been to New Zealand about the same time as Cook in 1769.
• Jean-Michel Huon de Kermadec died in New Caledonia.  
• Antoine Raymond Joseph de Bruni d’Entrecasteaux never got home as he died in the Pacific of scurvy.  

Jules Sébastien César Dumont d’Urville, who did, died with his entire family in a railway accident near Paris. He had discovered French Pass and hence D’Urville Island – which Cook had missed, like Stewart Island! – and named Pepin and Adele Islands in Tasman Bay after his wife. 

He was lucky, when his ship did go broadside on through French Pass in a tidal stream of 9 knots, that it was not wrecked. 

La Pérouse disappears 

Perhaps the most interesting one was François de Galaup de La Pérouse who spent three years in the Pacific with his two ships, “Astrolabe” and “Boussole”, called at Botany Bay in early 1788, departed and was never seen again.  “Astrolabe” was discovered wrecked on the isolated Vanikoro Island in the Solomons but “Boussole” remained a mystery for about a hundred years.  

It was finally found post-war by my Vanuatu friend, Reece Discombe, when scuba-diving along the reef from the Astrolabe wreck.  Both ships had been driven over the reef and wrecked by a colossal cyclone.

The Astrolabe Reef in the Bay of Plenty, scene of the disastrous Rena collision in 2011, was named after another ship — La Perouse never came to New Zealand in all his three years in the Pacific. In fact it was D’Urville’s ship which nearly collided with the reef in 1827, that provided the name.

The race for Akaroa

Captain Charles François Lavaud, the French representative for the proposed settlement of Akaroa, sailed for New Zealand in April 1840. A month later, the Comte de Paris set off from France for Akaroa carrying 53 emigrants. 

In the Bay of Islands, Lavaud made contact with Roman Catholic Bishop Jean-Baptiste François Pompallier who had arrived in 1838 to set up a Catholic mission.  Lavaud also dined with Lieutenant Governor, William Hobson, and let slip the immigrants’ intentions. Hobson thereupon promptly despatched the brig HMS Britomart to Akaroa under the command of Commander Owen Stanley.  He hoisted the Union Jack ashore without delay and it duly greeted Captain Lavaud five days later.

Realising that resistance to the English would be futile, Lavaud accepted that the French had been headed off, but would be allowed to settle in the sheltered harbour. Akaroa retains reminders of its French origins today, notably in its street names and shop signs.