by Geoffrey Churchman

Parishioners at the now demolished Catholic church in Waikanae (see this post) know it was named for Our Lady of Fatima so this movie on the events of 1917 in Portugal will have extra interest for them.

Fatima was a typical rural Portuguese small town in 1917 and the country by that stage was involved in World War One on the British side. The mayor regularly addressed gatherings in the town square to announce the names of local fallen or missing soldiers in the conflict.

On 13 May 1917, three local children, Lúcia dos Santos and her cousins, Francisco and Jacinta Marto, while guarding their families’ sheep in the Cova da Iria reported that they had seen visions of a “lady dressed in white” and shining with a bright light believed by the Catholic Church to be the Virgin Mary. The children claimed to have seen the Marian apparition on six occasions; they said the last would be 13 October 1917 and an estimated 70,000 pilgrims went to the site to see for themselves. Many (but not all) in the crowd reported what has been referred to as the Miracle of the Sun, when the sun behaved quite unusually.

The following year a small chapel was built on the site and was subsequently enclosed within a large basilica and sanctuary, part of a complex including a hotel and other facilities. In 1930, the statue of Our Lady in the Chapel of Apparitions was crowned by the Vatican.

Two of the childtren were victims of the influenza pandemic which spread in 1918 but the oldest, Lucia, went on to become a nun and lived until 2005.

Despite all this, the Catholic Church has never formally proclaimed acceptance of the events at Fatima, merely stating that they are “worthy of belief” and its adherents can decide for themselves.

The movie portrays the environment of the era quite well, and the drama of the disbelieving reaction the children get from not only their families but authorities is quite believable.

The beginning of the film is in 1989 as Professor Nicols (Harvey Keitel) visits Sister Lucia (Sonia Braga), now an octogenarian, at her convent. The professor is a skeptic, but for his new book project he needs to question Lucia about what she experienced in 1917. Nothing about the revelations conflicted with Church teachings, indeed endorsed them, which in turn raises the issue of how much existing teachings which the children were aware of influenced their descriptions.

These are the intriguing considerations which will appeal to Catholics, but all viewers get an endearing tale and Stephanie Gil, although a few years older than the real Lucia was at the time, is a good actress; in fact all the performances and cinematography are good.

Fatima (113 minutes) is screening at the Shoreline.

Comment from a reader:

It will be remembered that in the histrionic tirade aimed at you by Councillors Prvanov and Holborow in August they claimed there were ‘racial overtones’ in the mention of the Taj Mahal of Kapiti or Kaj, which only demonstrated the ridiculous nature of their statements.

One might find Mr Gurunathan’s use of the word ‘gollywogman’ in his personal email address to be offensive, and likewise the by-line for his Kapiti News column, ‘notes from a corner dairy’. But have these grandstanding councillors ever complained about it?

I’m writing to you from the media and analyst “lock-up” where Treasury just presented its Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update.The Update, which the Public Finance Act requires of Treasury just prior to every election, lays bare the Government’s books and include the latest projections on debt, spending, and the economy. This is the first proper update we’ve had from Treasury since the Budget way back in May.In short, Treasury is projecting at least 15 years of deficits, unemployment to remain elevated for some time, and our economic recovery to be slower than previously expected. Mood in the room Understandably, the room was sombre. Journalists targeted the Minister of Finance Grant Robertson with questions on accelerating house prices and inequality, while analysts in the room noted the substantial increase in projected debt over the next decade.On debt, the Minister was defensive. He tried to argue that he was unwilling to introduce austerity-style cuts to New Zealand, but didn’t present a plan for New Zealand to get out of our looming 15 year debt spiral. More explanation will be needed from Labour if they want to remain credible on the economy. Deficits With economic growth expected to be weaker in the next four years than previously forecast, Treasury is now projecting deficits right out until the end of their projection range in 2033/34. This is a change from its forecasts at the May Budget – when Treasury had expected we would return to surplus by 2027/28. The result for taxpayers: net crown debt is expected to be $269.3 billion – or $149,600 per household – in 2033/34. That’s up from the $132,700 per household forecast at the Budget in May. Weaker long-term economic recovery The latest forecasts indicate unemployment is expected to remain persistently high. While unemployment is not expected to spike as aggressively as Treasury forecast in May, peak unemployment (of 7.8%) is now not expected to arrive until March 2022 – so the economic pain for some households may continue to intensify for the next 18 months. Previously unemployment had been expected to be down at 6% by March 2022. But worst fears for 2020 avoided  At the Budget in May, the economy had been expected to contract by 24% (on an annualised basis) in the second quarter of this year, but Treasury now expects the contraction to be smaller at 16%. We will find whether that’s accurate tomorrow when Stats NZ release the official numbers. Treasury are attributing this smaller contraction to the Government’s wide-spread (and expensive) wage subsidy scheme and a faster than expected bounce-back from national lockdown.  In the near term that is having an impact on deficits, which are generally not as high as Budget forecasts in May. These better-than-expected near-term forecasts are reflected in the labour market – the fear of unemployment reaching 9.8% in the third quarter of this year hasn’t borne out. Conclusion With so much deficit spending, the Taxpayers’ Union’s message of fiscal prudence and ensuring quality government spending is more important than ever. Today’s numbers provide alarming context to the questionable lolly-scramble announcements being made on the election campaign trail.You can read Louis’ comments to media here:  “Decade of deficits” are a national crisis Thank you for your support, Joe Ascroft Economist New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union

Happy coincidence of art and science in Mahara Covid ‘message’

A new Mahara Gallery double exhibition delivers a Covid-19 message in the form of work by two Paekakariki artists who in their professional lives have both been marine scientists.

Photographer Bob Zuur brings his acclaimed Bubbles of Paekakariki – Portraits from a Village in Lockdown to the Gallery while print-maker Joe Buchanan is showing his remarkable Lockdown Alphabet. 

“We invited Bob Zuur and Joe Buchanan to exhibit because of their creative response to Covid 19,” says Gallery Director Janet Bayly. “But in view of the crucial role science has played in dealing with the pandemic, it’s a happy coincidence that they both happen to be scientists and a further coincidence that they both live in Paekakariki.”

At the exhibition opening, both talked about their reaction to Covid-19 and the impact Lockdown had on Paekakariki and New Zealand.

“Some people were not able to say goodbye to their loved ones or travel to see family,” Bob Zuur said. “Lockdown was hard but what everyone said is, ‘if we are going to be stuck anywhere in Lockdown, best be in New Zealand and you can’t beat Paekākāriki’.”

Bob Zuur studied marine biology and worked for local and central government and environmental groups on conservation in New Zealand and Antarctica. He had been passionate about photography since school days and in 2018, his passion also became his career.

Lockdown put photographic work on hold. In seeking something positive to take out of the experience, he came up with the idea of taking photos of different bubbles with the village.

He put a message on Facebook, hoping for around 20 replies. He was surprised by the way the village embraced the idea, giving him 55 photos which were exhibited in the village hall in June and captured in his book, Bubbles of Paekakariki – Portraits from a Village in Lockdown.

“There’s an element of trust you have to establish as a photographer which normally takes time,” he told Kapiti News in an interview.  “But with this it was a case of turning up and getting the photo within five minutes.

“I then often ended up with a longer conversation on how Lockdown was and the challenges they had faced and that sort of thing.”

Members of the bubbles were asked to summarise their lockdown experiences in captions which accompany the photographs in the exhibition.

Print-maker Joe Buchanan is also a marine biologist. He spoke at the exhibition opening about the effect Lockdown had on him. 

“For once, we all had time to think,” he said. “Suddenly appreciating the important role nurses and cleaners play in our lives realigned our values.”

That gave him the idea of using the alphabet as a means of commenting on what was happening at the time.

“I always wanted to cut a large alphabet. It is really hard to get large wooden type these day so I thought I’d cut one in lino and, because I was thinking about the Lockdown and the Covid-19 crisis, I wanted to respond to that and comment on it. 

“In many ways The Lockdown Alphabet is me going back to my early days.  The first public art I really did was protest banners, simple slogans and pithy texts.”

Joe Buchanan says the text that accompanies the letter “Z”, “zero transmission” is a note of hope. The Lock-down Alphabet is not purely a polemic. The text for the letter “I” delivers the relatable message, “I need a haircut.”

He describes himself as “a third generation Paekakariki human” who grew up there and returned three years ago with his partner and two daughters.

He operates Diatom Press from an old railway cottage relocated to his mother’s garden. 

He is working on a limited letterpress edition booklet of the commentary that accompanies the Alphabet.

Mahara Gallery is also currently showing, Living the Dream, an exhibition by Ben Caldwell, the 2019 Mahara Gallery Arts Review premier award winner. He describes himself as an “art maker” who lives between Paraparaumu and Aotea and has a workshop and small gallery in Paraparaumu.

There is also a small exhibition of works by Frances Hodgkins from the Field Collection in the Gallery’s NewSPACE gallery. It complements the major touring show Frances Hodgkins: European Journeys which has just opened in Wellington. It features a special painting loaned from the Field Collection. Friends of Mahara have been offered guided tours of this show by Adam Gallery Director, Christina Barton.

The CEO, Kapiti Coast District Council

16 September 2020

Dear CEO,

 Re: Gateway — the Consultation over, the new evaluation

The KCDC website now states the following:

The application made a solid case for government funding and we are now working through a process, having listened to community and elected member concerns, to test some of the assumptions made in the indicative business case. 

This includes looking at a range of options for how the centre might operate, should Council decide to proceed with the establishment of the Gateway at this time.

This  statement raises a number of concerns.

First, it states that KCDC has listened to the community. The listening has , according to the statement, now concluded.  I am unaware of any “Listening”. With regard to my own submissions all my correspondence to yourself and the mayor has been ignored and not responded to. Only information requests have been answered.

Please indicate how this further consultation has taken place-

(a) enumerate upon all the “Community concerns” listened to

(b) how was the evidence obtained at these “Listening events”

(c) who attended

(d) who listened

(e) how was the evidence obtained recorded

(f) what was the method used to carry out a fair and genuine evaluation of these concerns.  In other words the community needs to know that a genuine re-evaluation has taken place and not a public relations exercise enabling the council to say it consulted.

Second, it says KCDC is now going, ” to test some of the assumptions made in the indicative business case”. What is the test and how is the test being carried out. It is our understanding, after reading the information available on the KCDC web site, that the business case is based on the Bevin report and unsubstantiated assumptions contained in the application form to the PGF.

Addressing unsubstantiated assumptions — Page 2 of the Application states:

economic impacts are: 

• ∙  Revenue $5.91 million 
• ∙  Net Household Income $1.13 million 
• ∙  Employment 27 persons 
• ∙  Value Added/GRP $2.24 million 

Current and forecast Kāpiti Coast Visitor Spending economic impact scenarios show by 2030 (with 45,000 visitors or a 12.5 percent per annum increase in visitor numbers to Kāpiti Island only, let alone the rest of the district), total annual revenue could be up to $16.26 million and employment up to 72 persons. 

None of those figures are substantiated by any reference to the modelling template used, nor is there any indication as to how visitor numbers are guaranteed to grow 12.5% per annum. That is why we need to know how the test KCDC is currently undertaking is being carried out.

There is only one expert report on the table at the moment. We would suggest that this Bevin report needs to be peer reviewed and KCDC has already been asked to pay for NZIER to carry out that review. (Three requests have been made not a single one has been replied to). Please explain how KCDC can test the Bevin Report and its assumption of visitor numbers exploding to 58,000, without having that report peer reviewed. As we understand it none of the councillors or council staff doing your “test” have any expertise in economic forecasting.

At page 14 of the application it states:

The total annual visitor limit to the Island is 58,000 and currently only 15,000 people are visiting, which means visitation is only at 25 percent. 

This is not only unsubstantiated, it is factually incorrect. It is has been arrived at by multiplying the maximum number of visitors allowed per day: 160 x 365 days a year = 58,400. No bad weather, sailings every day, visitors flocking throughout the winter months. So can you please indicate how the special committee is testing such fictional figures, and more importantly, whether, having concluded the business case is based on fictional numbers there is no viable business case supporting the project.

Another example of what appears to be unsubstantiated assertions made in the application to the PGF  appear at [14]:

No additional funding for this project will be required in the future. 

The proposed model of operation (which is still currently under development) will involve paid employees and volunteers. This is a model successfully used elsewhere to undertake similar services. Kāpiti Coast District Council will financially support the operations of the Centre in the initial years; however, the ultimate objective is for the Centre to be largely self-sufficient. Opportunities have been identified for how this could be achieved through commercial activities, corporate partnerships, community giving initiatives, and specific grants to support educational, cultural and environmental programmes/events on a case-by- case basis. An operating budget (attached) with projections out to 2027/28 is attached. 

The unsubstantiated material is highlighted in yellow. How will the “test” ensure there is substantiation-ie there is hard evidence to back up these assertions? In your reply please (a) List the commercial partnerships naming the companies involved, (b) the specific grants relied upon stating who is grantor, who is grantee, (c) a copy of “This is a model successfully used elsewhere to undertake similar services”.

Another matter

In preparing this letter I came across 3 further documents that you have not put on the KCDC website, though they were part of the application to the PGF. These are:

1. Feasibility Report p[15]
2. Design statement p[8]
3. Business Case p[15] — this appears to be different to the Bevin report.

I emailed you last evening noting the absence of the Gnatt Report at [27] and the Budget Spreadsheet at p [28], and seeking their immediate release. Please release these latest “finds”.

This letter is in itself a litmus test. If there is no response, answering the questions raised, it will be hard evidence of the vacuity of KCDC’s press release assertions that actual consultation has taken place and the red flags raised have been given the consideration any reasonable person would give them.

Thanking you in anticipation of your timeous response,

Yours faithfully,

C.B. Ruthe

E&OE

Contained in the latest council e-mailer yesterday is this:-

Solid case for Gateway funding

Today we’ve made our application to the Government’s Provincial Growth Fund for the Kāpiti Gateway project available on our website.
 
The application made a solid case for government funding and we are now working through a process, having listened to community and elected member concerns, to test some of the assumptions made in the indicative business case. This includes looking at a range of options for how the centre might operate, should Council decide to proceed with the establishment of the Gateway at this time.

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It’s clear they have pre-determined that it will proceed.

After several weeks of being asked to provide them and refusing, you can now read the council application documents here and here. They include the surprising statement, “Extensive public consultation has been undertaken on the proposal to build a Kāpiti Gateway.” Hmm.

And there’s a video:

I te tau 1975 i whakarewangia te kaupapa Wiki Reo Māori. Ia tau, ia tau ka whakanuia te kaupapa nei i te marama o Mahuru hei whakamahara i te rā i whakatakoto a Ngāi Māori i te petihana reo Māori. Ko te tino tikanga o te kaupapa nei kia aro ai te marea ki te whakatairanga, ki te whakanui i te reo Māori.

Nā reira kua takoto te mānuka e hoa mā, tēnei te akiaki i a tātou katoa kia whakatauhia te reo Māori ki ngā wāhi mahi, ki ngā kāinga otirā ki te hāpori whānau i te ao, i te pō – mauri ora!

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In the year 1975 Māori Language Week was launched. Each year the event is celebrated in September to commemorate the day [in 1972] Māori filed the Māori language petition. The purpose of this event is to raise awareness of and promote te Reo Māori.

Therefore, friends, the challenge is to encourage all of us to establish the Māori language in the workplace, at home and in the family, day and night —  life force, vital essence wellness!

Kapiti Coast commuter rail campaigner Cr Gwynn Compton has welcomed the announcement from Green Party co-leader James Shaw that, if elected to Government, the Green Party will make electrification of the Wellington rail network between Waikanae and Ōtaki a top priority, with work to begin in the next term.

“While the Green Party has always been leading the way on commuter rail, this specific commitment to electrification between Waikanae and Ōtaki, as well as new hybrid* trains for the Capital Connection service, is welcome news,” says Gwynn Compton, who set up the Kāpiti-Horowhenua Commuter Rail Campaign in March 2020, and has previously run a petition that gained over 1,600 signatures in support of electrifying the rail network to Ōtaki.

“The Green Party’s longer term vision which James Shaw outlined today – including electrification and double tracking all the way to Palmerston North and track upgrades to allow higher speed services using tilt trains – would also transform commuter transport in the lower North Island’s western corridor, removing cars from the road and fossil fuel emissions from the atmosphere.”

The Green Party’s announcement now means that both they and the National Party have committed to electrification and double tracking between Waikanae and Ōtaki, as well as funding new hybrid trains for the Capital Connection, putting pressure on the Labour Party and New Zealand First to get onboard.

“Having support from across the political spectrum for public transport infrastructure projects like these is critical for getting them across the line. I’m laying down the challenge for Labour and New Zealand First to join their colleagues in the Greens and National and commit to delivering fast, frequent, and climate friendly commuter rail services as outlined in the plan from the Kāpiti-Horowhenua Commuter Rail Campaign.”

More information about the Kāpiti-Horowhenua Commuter Rail Campaign can be found at www.kapitihorowhenuarail.co.nz

• Gwynn says the term hybrid is used loosely to cover bi-mode (e.g. overhead electric and diesel) as well as actual hybrid (overhead electric then battery). Hybrid (as in overhead and battery) now get around 150km on a single charge, with rapid charging (10 minutes) fairly standard, which would be plenty to service Ōtaki to Palmerston North. [It would also be plenty to cover Waikanae to Palmerston North].