If you poke the Russian bear too much, it will poke back, or as Donald Trump would say, ‘[Stuff] around and find out.’ That’s what the EU’s war-obsessed bosses can expect now.

Despite Trump declaring that Russian oil is no longer subject to sanctions, Ukrainian/Nato strikes have knocked out roughly 700,000 barrels per day of oil processing capacity across 16 refineries. Consequently, Russian seaborne oil product exports have dropped by about 10%. So oil prices for everyone have gone up.

In addition, key export terminals on the Baltic Sea (such as Primorsk and Ust-Luga) and the Black Sea (such as Tuapse and Novorossiysk) have seen exports heavily restricted following direct drone hits and fuel storage fires. For instance, repeated strikes at the Tuapse terminal have contributed to a 65% drop in export volumes year-on-year.