Recent statements by economists predicting property price drops of anywhere from 10–25% need to be treated with caution, according to a Realtor we know. She says:
“It’s fair to say most agents have properties not selling at tender, we are still selling above 80% at tender. However, we started in the Global Financial Crisis and investing in 2001 and have not stopped using the processes we used then. In about 2013 the market was seeing about 60% not going at tender or deadline. If you are all gung ho and you have only seen a hot market and don’t have sellers who experienced things at the beginning you can understand their frustration.
“Plus with agents that can’t handle conflict with sellers (e.g. if houses start to linger, the vendor starts getting stressed out and the agent sees it as conflict and retreats) you are going to start seeing withdrawals.
“Much lower numbers are coming to Open Homes – but you also have to factor in the Covid peak as so many people are isolating. Plus a few are waiting for a 25% drop (which has never happened in Wellington in 60 years), and they will start missing out as interest rates rise and it throws them off the ladder.
“Well-presented properties with top end marketing seem to still be doing OK. Anything that needs work (which we will generally be able to sort before it goes on the market) will linger, but as long as you keep charging up the marketing you’ll get there.”
Geoff Waterhouse said:
In my humble opinion this “Recent statements by economists predicting property price drops of anywhere from 10–25% need to be treated with caution, according to a Realtor we know”.is like “Recent statements by economists predicting a banking collapse need to be treated with caution, according to a Banker we know.” I was a mortgage and insurance broker for 40 years in 4 countries so I have had a bit of experience.
I foresee some serious problems not too far down the road. People who have bought and who are still buying overpriced houses with maximum variable rate mortgages (death pledges)are in for a nasty shock when interest rates rise. The NZ $ has gone up from $0.665 to $0.695 against the US$ in a month. That tends to be sign of rising interest rates, but we will see. Just my humble opinion