by the Cato Institute
The authoritarian regime in Venezuela held a referendum on Sunday in which, according to official sources, 95 percent of voters backed Nicolás Maduro’s claims over the oil‐rich Esequiba region of neighboring Guyana. Although analysts speculate Maduro will not invade Guyana, there is no denying he has several strong reasons to do just that.
Esequiba constitutes over two thirds of Guyana’s total land mass. Venezuela’s claims on the Esequiba, which have been the source of a long‐running territorial dispute, were reignited in recent years after Guyana’s discovery of oil and gas near the maritime border.
The referendum comes on the heels of growing military tension on the border between Venezuela and Guyana, with Brazil, which shares borders with both countries, having “intensified defensive actions” on November 29, according to its defense ministry.
The Venezuelan referendum asked voters to back the regime’s rejection of the International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction over Esequiba and “to agree to a plan to incorporate it and create a state called Guayana Esequiba.”
It also sought “to grant its population Venezuelan citizenship.” In October, Guyana’s government, headed by president Mohamed Irfaan Ali, requested an explanation from the Venezuelan ambassador in Georgetown regarding heightened troop movements in the border regions.
Amid the uncertainty, there are reasons for concern. Maduro’s nationalist incentives, his domestic political fortunes, the Venezuela‐Guyana military balance, the regional politics, and the alignment of great power interests all come together in a way that could suggest military action.
The discovery was made by Exxon-Mobil in 2015, an American company which won’t take kindly to Joe siding with the dreadful Leftist regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela to deprive them of it. And Leftists won’t take kindly to Joe taking action against another Leftist regime, no matter how bad it is. Why is oil and gas a motivation for invasion by Venezuela anyway? The fact is Venezuela is currently the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 300 billion barrels of it, but being run by Leftists, the country has not benefited from it and is in dire straits. Overriding it all, Biden & Blinken’s war machine is already rather stretched with their involvement in the Middle East and Ukraine.